{"id":35171,"date":"2024-12-19T23:59:51","date_gmt":"2024-12-19T15:59:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/17aitech.com\/?p=35171"},"modified":"2024-12-19T23:59:51","modified_gmt":"2024-12-19T15:59:51","slug":"nature%e5%ad%90%e5%88%8a%ef%bc%8c%e4%b8%8a%e6%99%ba%e9%99%a2%e3%80%81%e5%a4%8d%e6%97%a6%e3%80%81%e4%b8%ad%e5%9b%bd%e6%b0%94%e8%b1%a1%e5%b1%80%e7%a0%94%e5%8f%91%e6%ac%a1%e5%ad%a3%e8%8a%82ai%e5%a4%a7","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/17aitech.com\/?p=35171","title":{"rendered":"Nature\u5b50\u520a\uff0c\u4e0a\u667a\u9662\u3001\u590d\u65e6\u3001\u4e2d\u56fd\u6c14\u8c61\u5c40\u7814\u53d1\u6b21\u5b63\u8282AI\u5927\u6a21\u578b\u300c\u4f0f\u7fb2\u300d\uff0c\u7a81\u7834\u300c\u53ef\u9884\u62a5\u6027\u6c99\u6f20\u300d"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u6587\u7ae0\u6765\u6e90\u4e8e\u4e92\u8054\u7f51:Nature\u5b50\u520a\uff0c\u4e0a\u667a\u9662\u3001\u590d\u65e6\u3001\u4e2d\u56fd\u6c14\u8c61\u5c40\u7814\u53d1\u6b21\u5b63\u8282AI\u5927\u6a21\u578b\u300c\u4f0f\u7fb2\u300d\uff0c\u7a81\u7834\u300c\u53ef\u9884\u62a5\u6027\u6c99\u6f20\u300d<\/a><\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

\u7f16\u8f91 |\u00a0ScienceAI<\/p>\n

\u4f5c\u8005 | \u4f0f\u7fb2\u56e2\u961f<\/section>\n

\u56fd\u52a1\u9662\u5370\u53d1\u7684\u300a\u6c14\u8c61\u9ad8\u8d28\u91cf\u53d1\u5c55\u7eb2\u8981\uff082022\u20142035 \u5e74\uff09\u300b\u660e\u786e\u63d0\u51fa\u8981\u300c\u63d0\u524d\u4e00\u4e2a\u6708\u9884\u62a5\u91cd\u5927\u5929\u6c14\u8fc7\u7a0b\u300d\uff0c\u800c\u8fd9\u79bb\u4e0d\u5f00 15 \u5929\u4ee5\u4e0a\u7684\u6b21\u5b63\u8282\u6c14\u5019\u9884\u6d4b\u6280\u672f\u3002<\/p>\n

\u6b21\u5b63\u8282\u6c14\u5019\u9884\u6d4b\u5173\u6ce8\u7684\u662f\u672a\u6765 15~60 \u5929\u7684\u6c14\u5019\u5f02\u5e38\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u4e3a\u519c\u4e1a\u3001\u6c34\u5229\u3001\u80fd\u6e90\u7b49\u9886\u57df\u7684\u751f\u4ea7\u5b89\u6392\u63d0\u4f9b\u91cd\u8981\u652f\u6491\u3002<\/p>\n

\u76f8\u6bd4\u65f6\u6548\u5728\u4e24\u5468\u4ee5\u5185\u7684\u4e2d\u77ed\u671f\u5929\u6c14\u9884\u62a5\uff0c\u6b21\u5b63\u8282\u6c14\u5019\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u66f4\u5927\u3002\u5b83\u4e0d\u4ec5\u9700\u8981\u8003\u8651\u521d\u503c\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u8fd8\u8981\u8003\u8651\u8fb9\u754c\u5f3a\u8feb\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u9884\u6d4b\u6765\u6e90\u66f4\u4e3a\u590d\u6742\uff0c\u9884\u6d4b\u6280\u5de7\u4e5f\u8f83\u5c11\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u6b21\u5b63\u8282\u6c14\u5019\u9884\u6d4b\u4e00\u76f4\u88ab\u79f0\u4e3a\u300c\u53ef\u9884\u62a5\u6027\u6c99\u6f20\u300d\uff0c<\/p>\n

\u7531\u4e8e\u5176\u590d\u6742\u6027\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u8fde AI \u5927\u6a21\u578b\u5728\u65f6\u95f4\u5c3a\u5ea6\u4e0a\u7684\u8868\u73b0\u4ea6\u957f\u671f\u672a\u80fd\u8d85\u8d8a\u4f20\u7edf\u6a21\u578b\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4e3a\u4e86\u89e3\u51b3\u8fd9\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u4e0a\u6d77\u79d1\u5b66\u667a\u80fd\u7814\u7a76\u9662\uff08\u7b80\u79f0\u4e0a\u667a\u9662\uff09\u3001\u590d\u65e6\u5927\u5b66\u3001\u4e2d\u56fd\u6c14\u8c61\u5c40\u56fd\u5bb6\u6c14\u5019\u4e2d\u5fc3\u8054\u5408\u7814\u53d1\u4e86\u300c\u4f0f\u7fb2\u300d\u6b21\u5b63\u8282\u6c14\u5019\u9884\u6d4b\u5927\u6a21\u578b\uff08FuXi-S2S) \uff0c\u9996\u6b21\u8d85\u8d8a\u4f20\u7edf\u6570\u503c\u9884\u62a5\u6a21\u5f0f\u7684\u6807\u6746 \u2014\u2014 \u6b27\u6d32\u4e2d\u671f\u5929\u6c14\u9884\u62a5\u4e2d\u5fc3\uff08ECMWF\uff09\u7684 S2S \u6a21\u5f0f\u3002<\/p>\n

\u8fd1\u65e5\uff0c\u8be5\u6210\u679c\u4ee5\u300cA Machine Learning Model that Outperforms Conventional Global Subseasonal Forecast Models<\/em>\u300d\u4e3a\u9898\u7684\u8bba\u6587\uff0c\u88ab\u56fd\u9645\u6743\u5a01\u7efc\u5408\u6027\u671f\u520a\u300aNature Communications<\/em>\u300b\u6742\u5fd7\u6536\u5f55\u53d1\u8868\u3002<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

\u4f5c\u4e3a\u4e00\u79cd\u673a\u5668\u5b66\u4e60\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u300c\u4f0f\u7fb2\u300d\u6b21\u5b63\u8282\u6c14\u5019\u9884\u6d4b\u5927\u6a21\u578b\u5305\u542b\u8f83\u4e3a\u5168\u9762\u7684\u53d8\u91cf\uff1a13 \u4e2a\u6c14\u538b\u5c42\u7684 5 \u4e2a\u9ad8\u7a7a\u5927\u6c14\u53d8\u91cf\u548c 11 \u4e2a\u5730\u9762\u53d8\u91cf\u3002\u5176\u72ec\u7279\u4e4b\u5904\u5728\u4e8e\u80fd\u591f\u5feb\u901f\u6709\u6548\u5730\u751f\u6210\u5927\u578b\u96c6\u5408\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u5728\u5927\u7ea6 7 \u79d2\u5185\u5b8c\u6210\u957f\u8fbe 42 \u5929\u7684\u5168\u7403\u65e5\u5e73\u5747\u9884\u62a5\u3002<\/p>\n

\u8fd9\u4e9b\u9884\u6d4b\u4fe1\u606f\u5bf9\u4e8e\u519c\u4e1a\u89c4\u5212\u3001\u8d44\u6e90\u7ba1\u7406\u3001\u707e\u5bb3\u51c6\u5907\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u62b5\u5fa1\u70ed\u6d6a\u5e72\u65f1\u3001\u5bd2\u6f6e\u6d2a\u6c34\u7b49\u6781\u7aef\u5929\u6c14\u4e8b\u4ef6\u81f3\u5173\u91cd\u8981\u3002<\/p>\n

\u300c\u4f0f\u7fb2\u300d\u6b21\u5b63\u8282\u6c14\u5019\u9884\u6d4b\u5927\u6a21\u578b\u5728\u6280\u672f\u4e0a\u5b9e\u73b0\u4e86\u4e24\u4e2a\u5173\u952e\u6027\u521b\u65b0\uff1a<\/p>\n

\u4e00\u662f\u5f15\u5165\u4e86\u6d77\u6c14\u76f8\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\u8fc7\u7a0b\uff0c\u7279\u522b\u662f\u5c06\u70ed\u5e26\u5927\u6c14\u5b63\u8282\u5185\u632f\u8361\uff08MJO\uff09\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6b21\u5b63\u8282\u6700\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u53ef\u9884\u62a5\u6027\u6765\u6e90\u7eb3\u5165\u6a21\u578b\uff1b<\/p>\n

\u4e8c\u662f\u5728\u9690\u7a7a\u95f4\u4e2d\u521b\u65b0\u6027\u8bbe\u8ba1\u4e86\u667a\u80fd\u6270\u52a8\u751f\u6210\u6a21\u5757\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u53ef\u4ee5\u5728\u5f53\u524d\u6c14\u5019\u7cfb\u7edf\u72b6\u6001\u4e0b\u523b\u753b\u672a\u6765\u4e00\u4e2a\u9884\u62a5\u65f6\u6b21\u6c14\u5019\u7cfb\u7edf\u6f14\u53d8\u7684\u6982\u7387\u7279\u5f81\uff0c\u8fdb\u800c\u6709\u6548\u6293\u4f4f\u6c14\u5019\u7cfb\u7edf\u7684\u7269\u7406\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u3002<\/p>\n

\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6280\u672f\u7a81\u7834\u4f7f\u5f97\u8be5\u6a21\u578b\u5bf9\u964d\u6c34\u7684\u5168\u7403\u9884\u6d4b\u80fd\u529b\u663e\u8457\u63d0\u5347\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u5728\u6211\u56fd\u957f\u6c5f\u4e2d\u4e0b\u6e38\u5730\u533a\u7b49\u70ed\u5e26\u5916\u5730\u533a\u66f4\u4e3a\u663e\u8457\u3002<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

\u56fe\u793a\uff1a\u6d41\u7a0b\u67b6\u6784\u6982\u8ff0\u3002\uff08\u6765\u6e90\uff1a\u8bba\u6587\uff09<\/section>\n

MJO \u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u5468\u671f\u6027\u7684\u5927\u6c14\u73af\u6d41\u6a21\u5f0f\uff0c\u5176\u5f71\u54cd\u8303\u56f4\u4ece\u70ed\u5e26\u5230\u4e2d\u9ad8\u7eac\u5ea6\u5730\u533a\u3002\u9884\u6d4b MJO \u53ef\u4ee5\u5e2e\u52a9\u6c14\u8c61\u5b66\u5bb6\u548c\u6c14\u5019\u5b66\u5bb6\u66f4\u51c6\u786e\u5730\u7406\u89e3\u548c\u9884\u6d4b\u672a\u6765\u6570\u5468\u5230\u6570\u6708\u5185\u7684\u964d\u6c34\u6a21\u5f0f\u3001\u98ce\u66b4\u6d3b\u52a8\u3001\u6e29\u5ea6\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u5e72\u65f1\u548c\u6d2a\u6d9d\u7b49\u6781\u7aef\u5929\u6c14\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u53d1\u751f\u3002<\/p>\n

\u300c\u4f0f\u7fb2\u300d\u6b21\u5b63\u8282\u6c14\u5019\u9884\u6d4b\u5927\u6a21\u578b\u6709\u6548\u63d0\u5347\u4e86\u5bf9 MJO \u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u6280\u5de7\uff0c\u5c06 MJO \u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u6280\u5de7\u8fbe\u5230\u4e86 36 \u5929\uff0c\u5927\u5e45\u8d85\u8fc7\u4e86 ECMWF \u7684 S2S \u6a21\u5f0f\u7684 30 \u5929\u65f6\u957f\u3002<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

\u56fe\u793a\uff1a\u4f7f\u7528 2017 \u5e74\u81f3 2021 \u5e74\u7684\u6240\u6709\u6d4b\u8bd5\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u5bf9 ECMWF \u4e9a\u5b63\u8282\u5230\u5b63\u8282 (S2S) \u91cd\u65b0\u9884\u62a5 (\u84dd\u8272) \u548c FuXi-S2S \u9884\u62a5 (\u7ea2\u8272) \u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u96c6\u5408\u5747\u503c\u7684\u5b9e\u65f6\u591a\u5143\u9a6c\u767b-\u6731\u5229\u5b89\u632f\u8361 (MJO) (RMM) \u53cc\u53d8\u91cf\u76f8\u5173 (COR) \u8fdb\u884c\u6bd4\u8f83\u3002\uff08\u6765\u6e90\uff1a\u8bba\u6587\uff09<\/section>\n

\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u300c\u4f0f\u7fb2\u300d\u6b21\u5b63\u8282\u6c14\u5019\u9884\u6d4b\u5927\u6a21\u578b\u8fd8\u53ef\u4ee5\u901a\u8fc7\u6784\u5efa\u663e\u8457\u56fe (Saliency map) \u8bc6\u522b\u5bfc\u81f4\u6781\u7aef\u4e8b\u4ef6\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u6f5c\u5728\u4fe1\u606f\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u80fd\u529b\u5728\u9884\u6d4b 2022 \u5e74\u5df4\u57fa\u65af\u5766\u6d2a\u6c34\u671f\u95f4\u7684\u6781\u7aef\u964d\u96e8\u65b9\u9762\u5f97\u5230\u4e86\u9a8c\u8bc1\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5177\u4f53\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e3a\uff0c\u9996\u5148\u5b9a\u4e49\u4e00\u4e2a\u635f\u5931\u51fd\u6570\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u4e0b\u56fe\u7eff\u8272\u65b9\u6846\u6807\u51fa\u7684\u5df4\u57fa\u65af\u5766\u5e73\u5747\u964d\u6c34\u5f02\u5e38\u767e\u5206\u7387\uff0c\u4fdd\u6301\u6a21\u578b\u53c2\u6570\u56fa\u5b9a\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u901a\u8fc7\u53cd\u5411\u4f20\u64ad\u6c42\u89e3\u68af\u5ea6\u6700\u7ec8\u8f93\u51fa\u8f93\u5165\u56fe\u50cf\u50cf\u7d20\u7684\u68af\u5ea6\uff0c\u6765\u53cd\u6620\u8f93\u5165\u6c14\u8c61\u8981\u7d20\u5bf9\u4e8e\u5df4\u57fa\u65af\u5766\u964d\u6c34\u5f02\u5e38\u767e\u5206\u7387\u7684\u6b63\u76f8\u5173\u548c\u8d1f\u76f8\u5173\u4f5c\u7528\u3002<\/p>\n

\u51ed\u501f\u300c\u4f0f\u7fb2\u300d\u6b21\u5b63\u8282\u6c14\u5019\u9884\u6d4b\u5927\u6a21\u578b\u5f3a\u5927\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u80fd\u529b\u548c\u524d\u5146\u4fe1\u53f7\u8bc6\u522b\u80fd\u529b\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u4e3a\u5e94\u5bf9\u6781\u7aef\u5929\u6c14\u4e8b\u4ef6\u63d0\u4f9b\u6709\u6548\u7684\u5de5\u5177\u548c\u7b56\u7565\u3002<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

\u56fe\u793a\uff1a\u5bf9 ECMWF \u4e9a\u5b63\u8282\u5230\u5b63\u8282 (S2S) \u6a21\u578b\u548c FuXi-S2S \u6a21\u578b\u5bf9 2022 \u5e74\u5df4\u57fa\u65af\u5766\u6d2a\u6c34\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u6bd4\u8f83\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u6709\u52a9\u4e8e FuXi-S2S \u6a21\u578b\u51c6\u786e\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u524d\u5146\u4fe1\u53f7\u3002\uff08\u6765\u6e90\uff1a\u8bba\u6587\uff09<\/section>\n

\u5c55\u671b<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u4ee5\u5f80\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u4ec5\u6709\u5c11\u6570\u56fd\u5bb6\u80fd\u591f\u7814\u53d1\u5e76\u5b9e\u65f6\u8fd0\u884c\u4f20\u7edf\u6570\u503c\u9884\u62a5\u6a21\u5f0f\uff0c\u5176\u7814\u53d1\u548c\u8fd0\u884c\u9700\u8981\u5927\u91cf\u4eba\u529b\u548c\u8ba1\u7b97\u8d44\u6e90\uff0c\u4e14\u4f9d\u8d56\u8d85\u7ea7\u8ba1\u7b97\u673a\u4e0a\u6210\u5343\u4e0a\u4e07\u7684 CPU\u3002<\/p>\n

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\u5168\u4f53\u4f5c\u8005\uff1aLei Chen, Xiaohui Zhong, Hao Li#, Jie Wu, Bo Lu#, Deliang Chen, Shang-Ping Xie, Libo Wu, Qingchen Chao, Chensen Lin, Zixin Hu & Yuan Qi#\uff08\u6807#\u7684\u4e3a\u901a\u8baf\u4f5c\u8005\uff09<\/p>\n

\u8bba\u6587\u94fe\u63a5\uff1a
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