{"id":35621,"date":"2024-12-28T11:00:14","date_gmt":"2024-12-28T03:00:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/17aitech.com\/?p=35621"},"modified":"2024-12-28T11:00:14","modified_gmt":"2024-12-28T03:00:14","slug":"%e7%94%b5%e5%8a%9b%e3%80%81%e8%8a%af%e7%89%87%e5%88%b6%e9%80%a0%e3%80%81%e6%95%b0%e6%8d%ae%e5%92%8c%e5%bb%b6%e8%bf%9f%e6%88%90%e5%9b%9b%e5%a4%a7%e9%99%90%e5%88%b6%e5%9b%a0%e7%b4%a0%ef%bc%8cscaling-law","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/17aitech.com\/?p=35621","title":{"rendered":"\u7535\u529b\u3001\u82af\u7247\u5236\u9020\u3001\u6570\u636e\u548c\u5ef6\u8fdf\u6210\u56db\u5927\u9650\u5236\u56e0\u7d20\uff0cScaling Law\u80fd\u7eed\u52302030\u5e74\u5417\uff1f"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\u6587\u7ae0\u6765\u6e90\u4e8e\u4e92\u8054\u7f51:<a href=\"https:\/\/www.jiqizhixin.com\/articles\/2024-09-14-3\" target=\"_blank\">\u7535\u529b\u3001\u82af\u7247\u5236\u9020\u3001\u6570\u636e\u548c\u5ef6\u8fdf\u6210\u56db\u5927\u9650\u5236\u56e0\u7d20\uff0cScaling Law\u80fd\u7eed\u52302030\u5e74\u5417\uff1f<\/a><\/p>\n<section>\u8fd1\u5e74\u6765\uff0c\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u80fd\u529b\u663e\u8457\u63d0\u9ad8\u3002\u5176\u4e2d\uff0c\u8ba1\u7b97\u8d44\u6e90\u7684\u589e\u957f\u5360\u4e86\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u6027\u80fd\u63d0\u5347\u7684\u5f88\u5927\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\u3002\u89c4\u6a21\u5316\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u6301\u7eed\u4e14\u53ef\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u63d0\u5347\u4fc3\u4f7f\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u5b9e\u9a8c\u5ba4\u79ef\u6781\u6269\u5927\u8bad\u7ec3\u89c4\u6a21\uff0c\u8bad\u7ec3\u8ba1\u7b97\u4ee5\u6bcf\u5e74\u7ea6 4 \u500d\u7684\u901f\u5ea6\u589e\u957f\u3002<\/section>\n<section><\/section>\n<section>\u4ece\u8fd9\u4e2a\u89d2\u5ea6\u6765\u770b\uff0c\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u8bad\u7ec3\u8ba1\u7b97\u7684\u589e\u957f\u901f\u5ea6\u751a\u81f3\u8d85\u8fc7\u4e86\u8fd1\u4ee3\u53f2\u4e0a\u4e00\u4e9b\u6700\u5feb\u7684\u6280\u672f\u6269\u5f20\u3002\u5b83\u8d85\u8fc7\u4e86\u79fb\u52a8\u7535\u8bdd\u91c7\u7528\u7387\uff081980-1987 \u5e74\uff0c\u6bcf\u5e74 2 \u500d\uff09\u3001\u592a\u9633\u80fd\u88c5\u673a\u5bb9\u91cf\uff082001-2010 \u5e74\uff0c\u6bcf\u5e74 1.5 \u500d\uff09\u548c\u4eba\u7c7b\u57fa\u56e0\u7ec4\u6d4b\u5e8f\uff082008-2015 \u5e74\uff0c\u6bcf\u5e74 3.3 \u500d\uff09\u7684\u5cf0\u503c\u589e\u957f\u7387\u3002<\/section>\n<section><\/section>\n<section>\u5728\u6700\u8fd1\u7684\u4e00\u4efd\u62a5\u544a\u4e2d\uff0cEpoch AI \u7814\u7a76\u4e86\u5f53\u524d\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u8bad\u7ec3\u89c4\u6a21\u7684\u5feb\u901f\u589e\u957f\uff08\u7ea6\u6bcf\u5e74 4 \u500d\uff09\u5728 2030 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src=\"https:\/\/17aitech.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/frc-01da2ce8c9eb6760e63f2de640db4420.png\"><\/a><\/section>\n<section>\u62a5\u544a\u4e2d\u7684\u5206\u6790\u5305\u62ec\u751f\u4ea7\u80fd\u529b\u7684\u6269\u5f20\u3001\u6295\u8d44\u548c\u6280\u672f\u8fdb\u6b65\u3002\u9664\u5176\u4ed6\u56e0\u7d20\u5916\uff0c\u8fd9\u5305\u62ec\u5ba1\u67e5\u5148\u8fdb\u82af\u7247\u5c01\u88c5\u8bbe\u65bd\u7684\u8ba1\u5212\u589e\u957f\u3001\u989d\u5916\u53d1\u7535\u5382\u7684\u5efa\u8bbe\u4ee5\u53ca\u6570\u636e\u4e2d\u5fc3\u5229\u7528\u591a\u4e2a\u7535\u529b\u7f51\u7edc\u7684\u5730\u7406\u5206\u5e03\u3002\u4e3a\u4e86\u8003\u8651\u8fd9\u4e9b\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u62a5\u544a\u7eb3\u5165\u4e86\u5404\u79cd\u516c\u5f00\u6765\u6e90\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\uff1a\u534a\u5bfc\u4f53\u4ee3\u5de5\u5382\u7684\u6269\u5f20\u8ba1\u5212\u3001\u7535\u529b\u4f9b\u5e94\u5546\u7684\u4ea7\u80fd\u589e\u957f\u9884\u6d4b\u3001\u5176\u4ed6\u76f8\u5173\u884c\u4e1a\u6570\u636e\u4ee5\u53ca\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u4e00\u4e9b\u7814\u7a76\u3002<\/section>\n<section><\/section>\n<section>\u4ed6\u4eec\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u5230\u672c\u4e2a\u5341\u5e74\u672b\uff0c2e29 FLOP \u7684\u8bad\u7ec3\u8fd0\u884c\u6216\u8bb8\u662f\u53ef\u884c\u7684\u3002<strong>\u6362\u53e5\u8bdd\u8bf4\uff0c\u5230 2030 \u5e74\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u5f88\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u8bad\u7ec3\u51fa\u89c4\u6a21\u8d85\u8fc7 GPT-4 \u7684\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u4e0e GPT-4 \u5728\u89c4\u6a21\u4e0a\u8d85\u8fc7 GPT-2 \u7684\u7a0b\u5ea6\u76f8\u540c\u3002\u5982\u679c\u7ee7\u7eed\u52aa\u529b\uff0c\u5230\u672c\u4e2a\u5341\u5e74\u672b\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u770b\u5230\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u7684\u5de8\u5927\u8fdb\u6b65\uff0c\u5c31\u50cf 2019 \u5e74 GPT-2 \u7684\u7b80\u964b\u6587\u672c\u751f\u6210\u4e0e 2023 \u5e74 GPT-4 \u7684\u590d\u6742\u95ee\u9898\u89e3\u51b3\u80fd\u529b\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5dee\u5f02\u4e00\u6837\u3002<\/strong><\/section>\n<section><\/section>\n<section>\u5f53\u7136\uff0c\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u5f00\u53d1\u8005\u662f\u5426\u771f\u7684\u4f1a\u8ffd\u6c42\u8fd9\u79cd\u6c34\u5e73\u7684\u6269\u5c55\uff0c\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u4ed6\u4eec\u662f\u5426\u613f\u610f\u5728\u672a\u6765\u51e0\u5e74\u6295\u8d44\u6570\u5343\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u7528\u4e8e\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u7684\u6269\u5c55\u3002\u4f46\u8fd9\u4e0d\u662f\u62a5\u544a\u8ba8\u8bba\u7684\u91cd\u70b9\u3002<\/section>\n<section><\/section>\n<section>\u5728\u6574\u4e2a\u5206\u6790\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e2d\uff0c\u62a5\u544a\u5047\u5b9a\u8bad\u7ec3\u8fd0\u884c\u53ef\u6301\u7eed 2 \u5230 9 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\u5de6\u53f3\uff09\u3002\u5730\u57df\u5206\u5e03\u5f0f\u8bad\u7ec3\u53ef\u4ee5\u5229\u7528\u591a\u4e2a\u5730\u533a\u7684\u80fd\u6e90\u57fa\u7840\u8bbe\u65bd\uff0c\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u6269\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u3002\u6839\u636e\u76ee\u524d\u7f8e\u56fd\u6570\u636e\u4e2d\u5fc3\u6269\u5f20\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u5206\u5e03\u5f0f\u7f51\u7edc\u53ef\u80fd\u5bb9\u7eb3 2 \u5230 45 GW\uff0c\u5047\u8bbe\u6570\u636e\u4e2d\u5fc3\u4e4b\u95f4\u6709\u8db3\u591f\u7684\u5e26\u5bbd\uff0c\u5219\u53ef\u652f\u6301 2e28 \u5230 2e30 FLOP \u7684\u8bad\u7ec3\u8fd0\u884c\u3002\u9664\u6b64\u4e4b\u5916\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u63d0\u524d 3 \u5230 5 \u5e74\u8fdb\u884c\u89c4\u5212\uff0c\u613f\u610f\u652f\u4ed8\u65b0\u53d1\u7535\u7ad9\u6210\u672c\u7684\u53c2\u4e0e\u8005\u53ef\u4ee5\u83b7\u5f97\u66f4\u591a\u7535\u529b\u3002<\/section>\n<section><a href=\"https:\/\/17aitech.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/frc-85db2cfd66876ea32c0e012e8825cf95.png\" data-fancybox=\"images\" data-fancybox=\"gallery\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/17aitech.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/frc-85db2cfd66876ea32c0e012e8825cf95.png\"><\/a><\/section>\n<section>\u6570\u636e\u4e2d\u5fc3\u7535\u529b\u5bb9\u91cf\u7684\u5feb\u901f\u6269\u5f20\u6f5c\u529b\u5de8\u5927\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u70b9\u5df2\u88ab\u591a\u79cd\u8d44\u6599\u6765\u6e90\u548c\u9884\u6d4b\u6240\u8bc1\u5b9e\u3002SemiAnalysis \u63d0\u4f9b\u7684\u5386\u53f2\u6570\u636e\u663e\u793a\uff0c2019 \u5e74\u81f3 2023 \u5e74\u671f\u95f4\uff0c\u6570\u636e\u4e2d\u5fc3\u5bb9\u91cf\u7684\u5e74\u589e\u957f\u7387\u7ea6\u4e3a 20%\uff08\u5982\u56fe 2\uff09\u30022024 \u5e74\u548c 2025 \u5e74\u7684\u6269\u5efa\u8ba1\u5212\u65e8\u5728\u52a0\u5feb\u8fd9\u4e00\u901f\u5ea6\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u6309\u65f6\u5b8c\u6210\uff0c\u5e74\u589e\u957f\u7387\u5c06\u8fbe\u5230 32%\u3002<\/section>\n<section><\/section>\n<section>\u603b\u4f53\u800c\u8a00\uff0c10-30% \u7684\u5e74\u589e\u957f\u7387\u4f3c\u4e4e\u662f\u53ef\u4ee5\u5b9e\u73b0\u7684\u3002\u6839\u636e 15% \u7684\u4e2d\u5fc3\u589e\u957f\u7387\u4f30\u7b97\uff0c\u5230 2030 \u5e74\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u6570\u636e\u4e2d\u5fc3\u7684\u5bb9\u91cf\u5c06\u4ece 40 GW \u589e\u957f\u5230 90 GW\uff0c\u5373\u589e\u52a0 50 GW\u3002\u6ce8\u610f\uff0c\u6b64\u5904\u4f7f\u7528\u7684\u662f\u5bf9\u5b9e\u9645\u589e\u957f\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u8303\u56f4\uff0c\u5e76\u4ee5\u6b64\u4e3a\u57fa\u7840\u4f30\u7b97\u53ef\u884c\u7684\u589e\u957f\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u8fd9\u4e00\u6570\u5b57\u53ef\u4ee5\u8bf4\u662f\u4fdd\u5b88\u7684\u3002<\/section>\n<section><\/section>\n<section>\u62a5\u544a\u4e2d\u63d0\u5230\uff0c\u7531\u672c\u5730\u7535\u529b\u652f\u6301\u7684 2030 \u5e74\u8bad\u7ec3\u8fd0\u884c\u53ef\u80fd\u9700\u8981 1 \u5230 5 GW\uff0c\u5230 2030 \u5e74\u53ef\u8fbe\u5230 1e28 \u5230 3e29 FLOP\u3002\u4e0e\u6b64\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u5206\u5e03\u5728\u5404\u5730\u7684\u8bad\u7ec3\u8fd0\u884c\u53ef\u83b7\u5f97 2 \u81f3 45 GW \u7684\u7535\u529b\u4f9b\u5e94\uff0c\u5e76\u5728\u6570\u636e\u4e2d\u5fc3\u5bf9\u4e4b\u95f4\u5b9e\u73b0 4 \u81f3 20 Pbps \u7684\u8fde\u63a5\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u5b9e\u73b0 2e28 \u81f3 2e30 FLOP \u7684\u8bad\u7ec3\u8fd0\u884c\u3002\u4e0a\u8ff0\u4f30\u8ba1\u80cc\u540e\u7684\u5047\u8bbe\u53ef\u4ee5\u5728\u4e0b\u56fe 3 \u4e2d\u627e\u5230\u3002<\/section>\n<section><a href=\"https:\/\/17aitech.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/frc-686d4d19095f31cd885448e4d6e7314a.png\" data-fancybox=\"images\" data-fancybox=\"gallery\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/17aitech.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/frc-686d4d19095f31cd885448e4d6e7314a.png\"><\/a><\/section>\n<section><strong>\u82af\u7247\u5236\u9020\u80fd\u529b<\/strong><\/section>\n<section><\/section>\n<section>\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u82af\u7247\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u8bad\u7ec3\u5927\u578b\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u6a21\u578b\u6240\u9700\u7684\u8ba1\u7b97\u80fd\u529b\u3002\u76ee\u524d\uff0c\u6269\u5c55\u53d7\u5230\u5148\u8fdb\u5c01\u88c5\u548c\u9ad8\u5e26\u5bbd\u5185\u5b58\u751f\u4ea7\u80fd\u529b\u7684\u9650\u5236\u3002\u4e0d\u8fc7\uff0c\u8003\u8651\u5230\u5236\u9020\u5546\u8ba1\u5212\u7684\u89c4\u6a21\u6269\u5f20\u4ee5\u53ca\u786c\u4ef6\u6548\u7387\u7684\u63d0\u9ad8\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u8003\u8651\u5230 GPU \u5c06\u5728\u591a\u4e2a AI \u5b9e\u9a8c\u5ba4\u4e4b\u95f4\u5206\u914d\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u90e8\u5206\u4e13\u7528\u4e8e\u670d\u52a1\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u4e5f\u53ef\u80fd\u6709\u8db3\u591f\u7684\u80fd\u529b\u8ba9 1 \u4ebf\u4e2a H100 \u7b49\u6548 GPU \u4e13\u7528\u4e8e\u8bad\u7ec3\uff0c\u4e3a 9e29 FLOP \u7684\u8bad\u7ec3\u8fd0\u884c\u63d0\u4f9b\u52a8\u529b\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u9884\u6d4b\u5177\u6709\u5f88\u5927\u7684\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\uff0c\u4f30\u8ba1\u503c\u4ece 2000 \u4e07\u5230 4 \u4ebf\u4e2a H100 \u7b49\u6548\u5904\u7406\u5668\u4e0d\u7b49\uff0c\u76f8\u5f53\u4e8e 1e29 \u5230 5e30 FLOP\uff08\u6bd4 GPT-4 \u5927 5000 \u5230 300000 \u500d\uff09\u3002<\/section>\n<section><\/section>\n<section>\u62a5\u544a\u4e2d\u5047\u8bbe\u4e86\u4e00\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\uff0c\u5373\u4ece\u73b0\u5728\u5230 2030 \u5e74\uff0c\u53f0\u79ef\u7535 5 \u7eb3\u7c73\u53ca\u4ee5\u4e0b\u7684\u5168\u90e8\u4ea7\u80fd\u90fd\u7528\u4e8e GPU \u751f\u4ea7\u3002\u5728\u8fd9\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u6f5c\u5728\u8ba1\u7b97\u91cf\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u589e\u52a0\u4e00\u4e2a\u6570\u91cf\u7ea7\uff0c\u8fbe\u5230 1e30 \u5230 2e31 FLOP\u3002\u8fd9\u4e00\u4e0a\u9650\u57fa\u4e8e\u5f53\u524d\u7684\u6676\u5706\u4ea7\u91cf\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u8bf4\u660e\u4e86\u5982\u679c\u5b8c\u5168\u89e3\u51b3\u5c01\u88c5\u3001HBM\u00a0\u751f\u4ea7\u548c\u6676\u5706\u5206\u914d\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u73b0\u6709\u9650\u5236\uff0c\u5bf9\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u8bad\u7ec3\u80fd\u529b\u53ef\u80fd\u4ea7\u751f\u7684\u6700\u5927\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u56fe 4 \u5c55\u793a\u4e86\u8fd9\u4e9b\u4f30\u8ba1\u503c\uff0c\u5e76\u5217\u51fa\u4e86\u5176\u80cc\u540e\u7684\u5047\u8bbe\u3002<\/section>\n<section><a href=\"https:\/\/17aitech.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/frc-b2445f978bb48adb9c66df840bed91b6.png\" data-fancybox=\"images\" data-fancybox=\"gallery\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/17aitech.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/frc-b2445f978bb48adb9c66df840bed91b6.png\"><\/a><\/section>\n<section><strong>\u6570\u636e\u77ed\u7f3a<\/strong><\/section>\n<section><\/section>\n<section>\u8bad\u7ec3\u5927\u578b\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u6a21\u578b\u9700\u8981\u76f8\u5e94\u7684\u5927\u578b\u6570\u636e\u96c6\u3002\u7d22\u5f15\u7f51\u7edc\u5305\u542b\u7ea6 500T \u7684\u72ec\u7279\u6587\u672c\uff0c\u9884\u8ba1\u5230 2030 \u5e74\u5c06\u589e\u52a0 50%\u3002\u4ece\u56fe\u50cf\u3001\u89c6\u9891\u548c\u97f3\u9891\u6570\u636e\u4e2d\u8fdb\u884c\u591a\u6a21\u6001\u5b66\u4e60\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u9002\u5ea6\u4fc3\u8fdb\u6269\u5c55\uff0c\u4f7f\u53ef\u7528\u4e8e\u8bad\u7ec3\u7684\u6570\u636e\u589e\u52a0\u4e09\u500d\u3002\u5728\u8003\u8651\u4e86\u6570\u636e\u8d28\u91cf\u3001\u53ef\u7528\u6027\u3001\u591a epoch \u548c\u591a\u6a21\u6001 tokenizer \u6548\u7387\u7b49\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u56e0\u7d20\u540e\uff0c\u4f30\u8ba1\u5230 2030 \u5e74\u53ef\u7528\u4e8e\u8bad\u7ec3\u7684 token \u76f8\u5f53\u4e8e 400 \u4e07\u4ebf\u5230 20 \u4ebf\u4ebf\u4e2a\uff0c\u5141\u8bb8 6e28 \u5230 2e32 FLOP \u7684\u8bad\u7ec3\u8fd0\u884c\u3002\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u6a21\u578b\u751f\u6210\u7684\u5408\u6210\u6570\u636e\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u5927\u5e45\u63d0\u9ad8\u8fd9\u4e00\u6bd4\u4f8b\u3002<\/section>\n<section><\/section>\n<section>\u636e\u4f30\u8ba1\uff0c\u7d22\u5f15\u7f51\u7edc\u4e0a\u7684\u6587\u672c\u6570\u636e\u91cf\u4e3a 20 \u4ebf\u4ebf\u4e2a token (Villalobos et al, 2024)\u3002\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u4e92\u8054\u7f51\u4e0a\u56fe\u7247\u548c\u89c6\u9891\u79d2\u6570\u7684\u4f30\u8ba1\u503c\u4e3a 40 \u4e07\u4ebf\u3002\u5982\u679c\u4e5f\u4f7f\u7528\u6bcf\u5f20\u56fe\u7247\u6216\u6bcf\u79d2\u89c6\u9891 100 \u4e2a token \u7684\u9ad8\u7aef\u4f30\u8ba1\u503c\uff0c\u8fd9\u610f\u5473\u7740\u6709\u56db\u4ebf\u4ebf\u4e2a\u89c6\u89c9 token\uff0c\u6216\u516d\u4ebf\u4ebf\u4e2a\u6587\u672c\u548c\u89c6\u89c9 token\u3002\u5982\u679c\u8fd8\u5047\u8bbe\u5230 2030 \u5e74\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6570\u636e\u91cf\u7ffb\u4e00\u756a\uff0c80% \u7684\u6570\u636e\u56e0\u8d28\u91cf\u8fc7\u6ee4\u800c\u88ab\u5220\u9664\uff08FineWeb \u4e22\u5f03\u4e86\u7ea6 85% \u7684 token\uff09\uff0c\u6a21\u578b\u5728\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6570\u636e\u4e0a\u8bad\u7ec3 10 \u4e2a epoch\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u6709\u6548\u6570\u636e\u96c6\u7684\u89c4\u6a21\u5c06\u8fbe\u5230\u7ea6 20 \u4ebf\u4ebf\u4e2a token\u3002\u6709\u5173\u8fd9\u4e9b\u53c2\u6570\u7684\u5b8c\u6574\u5217\u8868\u4ee5\u53ca\u62a5\u544a\u9009\u62e9\u8fd9\u4e9b\u503c\u8303\u56f4\u7684\u7406\u7531\uff0c\u5982\u56fe 5 \u6240\u793a\u3002<\/section>\n<section><a href=\"https:\/\/17aitech.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/frc-db3a403b7ae6ab7ef90e82218bd2b4f9.png\" data-fancybox=\"images\" data-fancybox=\"gallery\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/17aitech.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/frc-db3a403b7ae6ab7ef90e82218bd2b4f9.png\"><\/a><\/section>\n<section><strong>\u5ef6\u8fdf\u5899<\/strong><\/section>\n<section><\/section>\n<section>\u5ef6\u8fdf\u5899\u662f\u4e00\u79cd \u300c\u901f\u5ea6\u9650\u5236\u300d\uff0c\u6e90\u4e8e\u5411\u524d\u548c\u5411\u540e\u4f20\u9012\u6240\u9700\u7684\u6700\u77ed\u65f6\u95f4\u3002\u968f\u7740\u6a21\u578b\u89c4\u6a21\u7684\u6269\u5927\uff0c\u5b83\u4eec\u9700\u8981\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u987a\u5e8f\u64cd\u4f5c\u6765\u8bad\u7ec3\u3002\u589e\u52a0\u5e76\u884c\u5904\u7406\u7684\u8bad\u7ec3 token \u6570\u91cf\uff08\u5373\u300c\u6279\u5927\u5c0f\u300d\uff09\u53ef\u4ee5\u644a\u9500\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5ef6\u8fdf\uff0c\u4f46\u8fd9\u79cd\u65b9\u6cd5\u4e5f\u6709\u5c40\u9650\u6027\u3002\u8d85\u8fc7\u300c\u4e34\u754c\u6279\u5927\u5c0f\u300d\u540e\uff0c\u6279\u5927\u5c0f\u7684\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u589e\u52a0\u4f1a\u5bfc\u81f4\u8bad\u7ec3\u6548\u7387\u7684\u56de\u62a5\u9012\u51cf\uff0c\u8bad\u7ec3\u66f4\u5927\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u9700\u8981\u8fde\u7eed\u5904\u7406\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u6279\u3002\u8fd9\u5c31\u4e3a\u7279\u5b9a\u65f6\u95f4\u8303\u56f4\u5185\u7684\u8bad\u7ec3 FLOP \u8bbe\u5b9a\u4e86\u4e0a\u9650\u3002\u62a5\u544a\u4f30\u8ba1\uff0c\u73b0\u4ee3 GPU \u8bbe\u7f6e\u4e0a\u7684\u7d2f\u79ef\u5ef6\u8fdf\u5c06\u4f7f\u8bad\u7ec3\u8fd0\u884c\u7684 FLOP \u4e0a\u9650\u8fbe\u5230 3e30 \u5230 1e32\u3002\u8981\u8d85\u8d8a\u8fd9\u4e00\u89c4\u6a21\uff0c\u9700\u8981\u91c7\u7528\u5176\u4ed6\u7f51\u7edc\u62d3\u6251\u7ed3\u6784\u3001\u51cf\u5c11\u901a\u4fe1\u5ef6\u8fdf\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u91c7\u7528\u6bd4\u76ee\u524d\u66f4\u79ef\u6781\u7684\u6279\u89c4\u6a21\u6269\u5c55\u3002<\/section>\n<section><\/section>\n<section>OpenAI \u4e4b\u524d\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u5c06\u4e34\u754c\u6279\u5927\u5c0f\uff08\u5728\u8fd9\u4e2a\u70b9\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u8bad\u7ec3\u7684\u6536\u76ca\u4f1a\u5927\u5e45\u9012\u51cf\uff09\u4e0e\u68af\u5ea6\u76f8\u5bf9\u4e8e\u8bad\u7ec3\u6570\u636e\u7684\u5206\u6563\u7a0b\u5ea6\u8054\u7cfb\u4e86\u8d77\u6765\u3002\u5728\u6b64\u57fa\u7840\u4e0a\uff0cErdil \u548c Schneider-Joseph\uff08\u5373\u5c06\u53d1\u8868\uff09\u63a8\u6d4b\uff0c\u6279\u5927\u5c0f\u53ef\u80fd\u4e0e\u53ef\u8fd8\u539f\u6a21\u578b\u635f\u5931\u7684\u5012\u6570\u6210\u6bd4\u4f8b\uff0c\u6839\u636e Chinchilla \u7684\u8bf4\u6cd5\uff0c\u53ef\u8fd8\u539f\u6a21\u578b\u635f\u5931\u7684\u6bd4\u4f8b\u5927\u81f4\u4e3a\u6a21\u578b\u53c2\u6570\u6570\u91cf\u7684\u7acb\u65b9\u6839\u3002\u5982\u679c\u8fd9\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u6210\u7acb\uff0c\u5b83\u5c06\u628a\u5ef6\u8fdf\u5899\u63a8\u56de\u4e00\u4e2a\u6570\u91cf\u7ea7\uff0c\u53c2\u89c1\u4e0b\u56fe\u3002<\/section>\n<section><a href=\"https:\/\/17aitech.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/frc-d4ee34b5c356923e86847d2cce119bc8.png\" data-fancybox=\"images\" data-fancybox=\"gallery\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/17aitech.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/frc-d4ee34b5c356923e86847d2cce119bc8.png\"><\/a><\/section>\n<section><strong>\u4ec0\u4e48\u9650\u5236\u56e0\u7d20\u5f71\u54cd\u6700\u6df1\uff1f<\/strong><\/section>\n<section><\/section>\n<section>\u4e0a\u6587\u8bb2\u5230\u4e86\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u6269\u5c55\u7684\u56db\u4e2a\u4e3b\u8981\u74f6\u9888\u3002\u5982\u679c\u5c06\u5b83\u4eec\u653e\u5728\u4e00\u8d77\u8003\u8651\uff0c\u5219\u610f\u5473\u7740\u5230\u672c\u4e2a\u5341\u5e74\u672b\uff0c\u8bad\u7ec3\u8fd0\u884c\u9ad8\u8fbe 2e29 FLOP \u662f\u53ef\u884c\u7684\u3002\u8fd9\u5c06\u4ee3\u8868\u7740\u76f8\u5bf9\u4e8e\u5f53\u524d\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u5927\u7ea6 10000 \u500d\u7684\u6269\u5c55\uff0c\u5e76\u610f\u5473\u7740\u6269\u5c55\u7684\u5386\u53f2\u8d8b\u52bf\u53ef\u4ee5\u4e0d\u95f4\u65ad\u5730\u6301\u7eed\u5230 2030 \u5e74\uff08\u56fe 7\uff09\u3002\u6df1\u8272\u9634\u5f71\u6846\u5bf9\u5e94\u56db\u5206\u4f4d\u6570\u8303\u56f4\uff0c\u6d45\u8272\u9634\u5f71\u533a\u57df\u5bf9\u5e94 80% \u7f6e\u4fe1\u533a\u95f4\u3002<\/section>\n<section><a href=\"https:\/\/17aitech.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/frc-98b58c7b2ff69a6fef4982118fa5fc94.png\" data-fancybox=\"images\" data-fancybox=\"gallery\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/17aitech.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/frc-98b58c7b2ff69a6fef4982118fa5fc94.png\"><\/a><\/section>\n<section>\u6700\u5177\u7ea6\u675f\u529b\u7684\u9650\u5236\u56e0\u7d20\u662f\u7535\u529b\u548c\u82af\u7247\u7684\u53ef\u7528\u6027\u3002\u5176\u4e2d\uff0c\u7535\u529b\u7684\u53ef\u5851\u6027\u53ef\u80fd\u66f4\u5927\uff0c\u80fd\u6e90\u884c\u4e1a\u7684\u96c6\u4e2d\u5ea6\u8f83\u4f4e\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u6709\u6269\u5927 100 GW \u7535\u529b\u4f9b\u5e94\u7684\u5148\u4f8b\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u63d0\u524d\u4e09\u5230\u4e94\u5e74\u8ba1\u5212\uff0c\u4f9b\u5e94\u5546\u5e94\u8be5\u80fd\u591f\u6267\u884c\u3002<\/section>\n<section><\/section>\n<section>\u6269\u5927\u82af\u7247\u5236\u9020\u9762\u4e34\u591a\u91cd\u6311\u6218\uff1a\u5148\u8fdb\u5c01\u88c5\u7b49\u5173\u952e\u5de5\u827a\u5927\u591a\u5df2\u5206\u914d\u7ed9\u6570\u636e\u4e2d\u5fc3\u7684 GPU\uff0c\u800c\u5efa\u8bbe\u65b0\u7684\u6676\u5706\u5382\u9700\u8981\u5927\u91cf\u8d44\u672c\u6295\u8d44\u548c\u9ad8\u5ea6\u4e13\u4e1a\u5316\u7684\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u3002<\/section>\n<section><\/section>\n<section>\u6570\u636e\u662f\u6700\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u7684\u74f6\u9888\uff0c\u5176\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u8303\u56f4\u8de8\u8d8a\u56db\u4e2a\u6570\u91cf\u7ea7\u3002\u591a\u6a21\u6001\u6570\u636e\u5bf9\u63d0\u9ad8\u63a8\u7406\u80fd\u529b\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\u53ef\u80fd\u6709\u9650\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u6211\u4eec\u5bf9\u6b64\u7c7b\u6570\u636e\u7684\u53ef\u7528\u5b58\u91cf\u3001\u8d28\u91cf\u4ee5\u53ca\u5f53\u524d token \u5316\u65b9\u6cd5\u6548\u7387\u7684\u4f30\u8ba1\u90fd\u4e0d\u5982\u5bf9\u6587\u672c\u6570\u636e\u7684\u4f30\u8ba1\u90a3\u4e48\u786e\u5b9a\u3002\u6700\u7ec8\uff0c\u5408\u6210\u6570\u636e\u53ef\u4ee5\u5b9e\u73b0\u65e0\u9650\u6269\u5c55\uff0c\u4f46\u8ba1\u7b97\u6210\u672c\u8f83\u9ad8\u3002<\/section>\n<section><\/section>\n<section>\u6700\u540e\uff0c\u867d\u7136\u5ef6\u8fdf\u5899\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u9065\u8fdc\u7684\u5236\u7ea6\u56e0\u7d20\uff0c\u4f46\u5b83\u4f5c\u4e3a\u4e00\u4e2a\u9700\u8981\u514b\u670d\u7684\u969c\u788d\uff0c\u5df2\u7ecf\u51fa\u73b0\u5728\u5730\u5e73\u7ebf\u4e0a\u3002\u901a\u8fc7\u91c7\u7528\u66f4\u590d\u6742\u7684\u7f51\u7edc\u62d3\u6251\u7ed3\u6784\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u66f4\u5927\u7684 pod \u6216 pod 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