{"id":36613,"date":"2025-01-15T02:02:09","date_gmt":"2025-01-14T18:02:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/17aitech.com\/?p=36613"},"modified":"2025-01-15T02:02:09","modified_gmt":"2025-01-14T18:02:09","slug":"openai%e5%a4%a7%e6%94%b9%e4%b8%8b%e4%bb%a3%e5%a4%a7%e6%a8%a1%e5%9e%8b%e6%96%b9%e5%90%91%ef%bc%8cscaling-law%e6%92%9e%e5%a2%99%ef%bc%9fai%e7%a4%be%e5%8c%ba%e7%82%b8%e9%94%85%e4%ba%86","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/17aitech.com\/?p=36613","title":{"rendered":"OpenAI\u5927\u6539\u4e0b\u4ee3\u5927\u6a21\u578b\u65b9\u5411\uff0cscaling law\u649e\u5899\uff1fAI\u793e\u533a\u70b8\u9505\u4e86"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\u6587\u7ae0\u6765\u6e90\u4e8e\u4e92\u8054\u7f51:<a href=\"https:\/\/www.jiqizhixin.com\/articles\/2024-11-11-2\" target=\"_blank\">OpenAI\u5927\u6539\u4e0b\u4ee3\u5927\u6a21\u578b\u65b9\u5411\uff0cscaling law\u649e\u5899\uff1fAI\u793e\u533a\u70b8\u9505\u4e86<\/a><\/p>\n<blockquote data-author-name=\"\" data-content-utf8-length=\"34\" data-source-title=\"\" data-type=\"2\" data-url=\"\">\n<section>\n<section>\n<section>\u5927\u6a21\u578b\u7684 scaling law \u5230\u5934\u4e86\uff1f\u884c\u4e1a\u9f99\u5934 OpenAI \u5728\u8f6c\u6362\u7b56\u7565\u3002<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/blockquote>\n<section><\/section>\n<section>\u6709\u7814\u7a76\u9884\u8ba1\uff0c\u5982\u679c LLM \u4fdd\u6301\u73b0\u5728\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u52bf\u5934\uff0c\u9884\u8ba1\u5728 2028 \u5e74\u5de6\u53f3\uff0c\u5df2\u6709\u7684\u6570\u636e\u50a8\u91cf\u5c06\u88ab\u5168\u90e8\u5229\u7528\u5b8c\u3002\u5c4a\u65f6\uff0c\u57fa\u4e8e\u5927\u6570\u636e\u7684\u5927\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u5c06\u53ef\u80fd\u653e\u7f13\u751a\u81f3\u9677\u5165\u505c\u6ede\u3002<\/section>\n<section><a href=\"https:\/\/17aitech.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/frc-3a5cb7dc05b5181f3e081dffef07205a.png\" data-fancybox=\"images\" data-fancybox=\"gallery\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/17aitech.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/frc-3a5cb7dc05b5181f3e081dffef07205a.png\"><\/a><\/section>\n<section><em><sup>\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u6765\u81ea\u8bba\u6587\u300aWill we run out of data? Limits of LLM scaling based on human-generated data\u300b<\/sup><\/em><\/section>\n<section><\/section>\n<section>\u4f46\u4f3c\u4e4e\u6211\u4eec\u4e0d\u5fc5\u7b49\u5230 2028 \u5e74\u4e86\u3002\u6628\u5929\uff0cThe Information \u53d1\u5e03\u4e86\u4e00\u7bc7\u72ec\u5bb6\u62a5\u9053\u300a\u968f\u7740 GPT \u63d0\u5347\u51cf\u901f\uff0cOpenAI \u6539\u53d8\u7b56\u7565\u300b\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u7ed9\u51fa\u4e86\u4e00\u4e9b\u9887\u5177\u4e89\u8bae\u7684\u89c2\u70b9\uff1a<\/section>\n<section><\/section>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<section>OpenAI \u7684\u4e0b\u4e00\u4ee3\u65d7\u8230\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u8d28\u91cf\u63d0\u5347\u5e45\u5ea6\u4e0d\u53ca\u524d\u4e24\u6b3e\u65d7\u8230\u6a21\u578b\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u8d28\u91cf\u63d0\u5347\uff1b<\/section>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<section>AI \u4ea7\u4e1a\u754c\u6b63\u5c06\u91cd\u5fc3\u8f6c\u5411\u5728\u521d\u59cb\u8bad\u7ec3\u540e\u518d\u5bf9\u6a21\u578b\u8fdb\u884c\u63d0\u5347\uff1b<\/section>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<section>OpenAI \u5df2\u6210\u7acb\u4e00\u4e2a\u57fa\u7840\u56e2\u961f\u6765\u7814\u7a76\u5982\u4f55\u5e94\u5bf9\u8bad\u7ec3\u6570\u636e\u7684\u532e\u4e4f\u3002<\/section>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<section><\/section>\n<section>\u6587\u7ae0\u53d1\u5e03\u540e\uff0c\u70ed\u8bae\u4e0d\u65ad\u3002OpenAI \u8457\u540d\u7814\u7a76\u79d1\u5b66\u5bb6 Noam Brown \u76f4\u63a5\u8868\u793a\u4e86\u53cd\u5bf9\uff08\u867d\u7136\u90a3\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0\u4e2d\u4e5f\u5f15\u7528\u4e86\u4ed6\u7684\u89c2\u70b9\uff09\u3002\u4ed6\u8868\u793a AI \u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u77ed\u671f\u5185\u5e76\u4e0d\u4f1a\u653e\u7f13\u3002\u5e76\u4e14\u4ed6\u524d\u4e9b\u5929\u8fd8\u5728\u53e6\u4e00\u7bc7 X \u63a8\u6587\u4e2d\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u5bf9\u4e8e OpenAI CEO \u5c71\u59c6\u30fb\u5965\u7279\u66fc\u7684 AGI \u53d1\u5c55\u8def\u5f84\u5df2\u7ecf\u6e05\u6670\u7684\u8a00\u8bba\uff08\u300c\u4e8b\u60c5\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u901f\u5ea6\u5c06\u6bd4\u4eba\u4eec\u73b0\u5728\u9884\u60f3\u7684\u8981\u5feb\u5f97\u591a\u300d\uff09\uff0cOpenAI \u7684\u5927\u591a\u6570\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u90fd\u8868\u793a\u6bd4\u8f83\u8ba4\u540c\u3002<\/section>\n<section><a href=\"https:\/\/17aitech.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/frc-5e1860f4f9ed41cae9e0e937610e84b8.png\" data-fancybox=\"images\" data-fancybox=\"gallery\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/17aitech.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/frc-5e1860f4f9ed41cae9e0e937610e84b8.png\"><\/a><\/section>\n<section>\u8457\u540d X \u535a\u4e3b @apples_jimmy \u751a\u81f3\u76f4\u65a5\u4e4b\u4e3a Fake News\uff0c\u6bd5\u7adf\u5965\u7279\u66fc\u8bf4\u8fc7 AGI \u5f88\u5feb\u5c31\u8981\u5b9e\u73b0\u4e86\u3002<\/section>\n<section><a href=\"https:\/\/17aitech.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/frc-6409fe1f37fdf0994129cd70ad0610ce.gif\" data-fancybox=\"images\" data-fancybox=\"gallery\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/17aitech.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/frc-6409fe1f37fdf0994129cd70ad0610ce.gif\"><\/a><\/section>\n<section>OpenAI \u7684 Adam GPT \u5219\u7ed9\u51fa\u4e86\u66f4\u8be6\u7ec6\u7684\u53cd\u5bf9\u610f\u89c1\u3002\u4ed6\u8868\u793a\u5927\u6a21\u578b\u7684 scaling laws \u548c\u63a8\u7406\u65f6\u95f4\u7684\u4f18\u5316\u662f\u4e24\u4e2a\u53ef\u4ee5\u4e92\u76f8\u589e\u76ca\u7684\u7ef4\u5ea6\u3002\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u8bf4\u5c31\u7b97\u5176\u4e2d\u4e00\u4e2a\u7ef4\u5ea6\u653e\u7f13\uff0c\u4e5f\u4e0d\u80fd\u5f97\u51fa AI \u6574\u4f53\u53d1\u5c55\u653e\u7f13\u7684\u7ed3\u8bba\u3002<\/section>\n<section><a href=\"https:\/\/17aitech.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/frc-9b35938ad2b4b0fbd891514194253bc7.png\" data-fancybox=\"images\" data-fancybox=\"gallery\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/17aitech.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/frc-9b35938ad2b4b0fbd891514194253bc7.png\"><\/a><\/section>\n<section>OpenAI \u4ea7\u54c1\u526f\u603b\u88c1 Peter Welinder \u4e5f\u8ba4\u540c\u4e0a\u8ff0\u770b\u6cd5\u3002<\/section>\n<section><a href=\"https:\/\/17aitech.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/frc-73585bb5716f960f55cebecb061096dd.png\" data-fancybox=\"images\" data-fancybox=\"gallery\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/17aitech.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/frc-73585bb5716f960f55cebecb061096dd.png\"><\/a><\/section>\n<section>\u5f53\u7136\uff0c\u4e5f\u6709\u4eba\u8ba4\u540c The Information \u8fd9\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0\u7684\u89c2\u70b9\uff0c\u6bd4\u5982\u4e00\u76f4\u6709\u7c7b\u4f3c\u89c2\u70b9\u7684 Gary Marcus \u8868\u793a\u8fd9\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0\u5ba3\u544a\u4e86\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u80dc\u5229\u3002<\/section>\n<section><a href=\"https:\/\/17aitech.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/frc-d29518ca35e8f8f2706897cde92f03d7.png\" data-fancybox=\"images\" data-fancybox=\"gallery\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/17aitech.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/frc-d29518ca35e8f8f2706897cde92f03d7.png\"><\/a><\/section>\n<section>\u6570\u636e\u79d1\u5b66\u5bb6 Yam Peleg \u4e5f\u8868\u793a\u67d0\u524d\u6cbf\u5b9e\u9a8c\u5ba4\u7684 scaling laws \u51fa\u73b0\u4e86\u5de8\u5927\u7684\uff08HUGE\uff09\u53d7\u76ca\u9012\u51cf\u95ee\u9898\u3002<\/section>\n<section><a href=\"https:\/\/17aitech.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/frc-b74c6ccb5732113cbd00c8d976b75abe.png\" data-fancybox=\"images\" data-fancybox=\"gallery\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/17aitech.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/frc-b74c6ccb5732113cbd00c8d976b75abe.png\"><\/a><\/section>\n<section>\u5927\u591a\u6570\u5403\u74dc\u7fa4\u4f17\u57fa\u672c\u8ba4\u540c OpenAI \u76f8\u5173\u4eba\u58eb\u516c\u5f00\u53d1\u5e03\u7684\u610f\u89c1\uff0c\u6bd5\u7adf\u8be5\u516c\u53f8\u867d\u7136\u5b58\u5728\u65e0\u6570\u7684\u4e89\u8bae\u548c\u516b\u5366\uff0c\u4f46\u76ee\u524d\u4ecd\u65e7\u662f\u5f53\u4e4b\u65e0\u6127\u7684\u884c\u4e1a\u9886\u5bfc\u8005\u3002\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u8bf4\uff0c\u76f8\u6bd4\u4e8e\u5a92\u4f53\u63e3\u6d4b\uff0cOpenAI \u7684\u8bdd\u4f1a\u66f4\u53ef\u4fe1\u4e00\u4e9b\u3002<\/section>\n<section><a href=\"https:\/\/17aitech.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/frc-a8de2b1f1f1c04a2681c830154939c2a.png\" data-fancybox=\"images\" data-fancybox=\"gallery\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/17aitech.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/frc-a8de2b1f1f1c04a2681c830154939c2a.png\"><\/a><\/section>\n<section>\u4e0d\u8fc7\u6709\u610f\u601d\u7684\u662f\uff0cThe Information \u8fd9\u7bc7\u62a5\u9053\u4e5f\u5ba3\u79f0\u5f88\u591a\u4fe1\u606f\u6765\u81ea OpenAI \u5185\u90e8\u5458\u5de5\u548c\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u3002\u5f53\u7136\uff0c\u8be5\u5a92\u4f53\u6ca1\u6709\u7ed9\u51fa\u5177\u4f53\u7684\u4fe1\u606f\u6e90\u3002\u4e0b\u9762\u6211\u4eec\u5c31\u6765\u770b\u770b\u8fd9\u7bc7\u5f15\u53d1\u5e7f\u6cdb\u7684\u4e89\u8bae\u7684\u62a5\u9053\u7a76\u7adf\u8bf4\u4e86\u4ec0\u4e48\u3002<\/section>\n<section><\/section>\n<section>\u4f7f\u7528 ChatGPT \u548c\u5176\u4ed6\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u4ea7\u54c1\u7684\u4eba\u6570\u6b63\u5728\u98d9\u5347\u3002\u4e0d\u8fc7\uff0c\u652f\u6491\u8fd9\u4e9b\u4ea7\u54c1\u7684\u57fa\u672c\u6784\u5efa\u6a21\u5757\u7684\u6539\u8fdb\u901f\u5ea6\u4f3c\u4e4e\u6b63\u5728\u653e\u7f13\u3002<\/section>\n<section><\/section>\n<section>\u4e3a\u4e86\u5f25\u8865\u8fd9\u79cd\u51cf\u901f\uff0cOpenAI \u6b63\u5728\u5f00\u53d1\u65b0\u6280\u672f\u6765\u589e\u5f3a\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6784\u5efa\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u5373\u5927\u578b\u8bed\u8a00\u6a21\u578b\u3002<\/section>\n<section><\/section>\n<section>\u636e\u4e00\u4f4d\u77e5\u60c5\u4eba\u58eb\u900f\u9732\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1 OpenAI \u53ea\u5b8c\u6210\u4e86 Orion \u8bad\u7ec3\u8fc7\u7a0b\u7684 20%\uff0c\u4f46\u5965\u7279\u66fc\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u5728\u667a\u80fd\u548c\u5b8c\u6210\u4efb\u52a1\u548c\u56de\u7b54\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u80fd\u529b\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u5b83\u5df2\u7ecf\u4e0e GPT-4 \u4e0d\u76f8\u4e0a\u4e0b\u3002<\/section>\n<section><\/section>\n<section>\u636e\u4e00\u4e9b\u4f7f\u7528\u6216\u6d4b\u8bd5\u8fc7 Orion \u7684 OpenAI \u5458\u5de5\u79f0\uff0c\u867d\u7136 Orion \u7684\u6027\u80fd\u6700\u7ec8\u4f1a\u8d85\u8fc7\u4e4b\u524d\u7684\u578b\u53f7\uff0c\u4f46\u76f8\u6bd4\u4e8e\u8be5\u516c\u53f8\u53d1\u5e03\u7684\u6700\u65b0\u4e24\u6b3e\u65d7\u8230\u6a21\u578b GPT-3 \u548c GPT-4 \u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u98de\u8dc3\uff0c\u8d28\u91cf\u7684\u63d0\u5347\u8981\u5c0f\u5f97\u591a\u3002<\/section>\n<section><\/section>\n<section>\u636e\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5458\u5de5\u79f0\uff0c\u8be5\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u4e00\u4e9b\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u5728\u5904\u7406\u67d0\u4e9b\u4efb\u52a1\u65b9\u9762\uff0cOrion \u5e76\u4e0d\u6bd4\u5176\u524d\u4ee3\u6a21\u578b\u66f4\u597d\u3002\u636e OpenAI \u7684\u4e00\u540d\u5458\u5de5\u79f0\uff0cOrion \u5728\u8bed\u8a00\u4efb\u52a1\u4e0a\u8868\u73b0\u66f4\u597d\uff0c\u4f46\u5728\u7f16\u7a0b\u7b49\u4efb\u52a1\u4e0a\u53ef\u80fd\u4e0d\u4f1a\u80dc\u8fc7\u4e4b\u524d\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u3002\u5176\u4e2d\u4e00\u4f4d\u5458\u5de5\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u8fd9\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u4e0e OpenAI \u4e4b\u524d\u53d1\u5e03\u7684\u5176\u4ed6\u6a21\u578b\u76f8\u6bd4\uff0cOrion \u5728 OpenAI \u6570\u636e\u4e2d\u5fc3\u8fd0\u884c\u7684\u6210\u672c\u53ef\u80fd\u66f4\u9ad8\u3002<\/section>\n<section><\/section>\n<section>Orion \u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u53ef\u4ee5\u68c0\u9a8c\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u9886\u57df\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u6838\u5fc3\u5047\u8bbe\uff0c\u5373 scaling laws\uff1a\u53ea\u8981\u6709\u66f4\u591a\u6570\u636e\u53ef\u4f9b\u5b66\u4e60\uff0c\u5e76\u6709\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u8ba1\u7b97\u80fd\u529b\u6765\u4fc3\u8fdb\u8bad\u7ec3\u8fc7\u7a0b\uff0cLLM \u5c31\u80fd\u7ee7\u7eed\u4ee5\u76f8\u540c\u7684\u901f\u5ea6\u63d0\u5347\u6027\u80fd\u3002<\/section>\n<section><\/section>\n<section>\u4e3a\u4e86\u5e94\u5bf9\u8fd1\u671f GPT \u63d0\u5347\u653e\u7f13\u5bf9\u57fa\u4e8e\u8bad\u7ec3\u7684 scaling laws \u5e26\u6765\u7684\u6311\u6218\uff0cAI \u884c\u4e1a\u4f3c\u4e4e\u6b63\u5728\u5c06\u7cbe\u529b\u8f6c\u5411\u8bad\u7ec3\u540e\u5bf9\u6a21\u578b\u8fdb\u884c\u6539\u8fdb\uff0c\u8fd9\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u4ea7\u751f\u4e0d\u540c\u7c7b\u578b\u7684 scaling laws\u3002<\/section>\n<section><\/section>\n<section>\u5305\u62ec Meta \u7684\u9a6c\u514b\u30fb\u624e\u514b\u4f2f\u683c\u5728\u5185\u7684\u4e00\u4e9b CEO \u8868\u793a\uff0c\u5728\u6700\u574f\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u5f53\u524d\u6280\u672f\u6ca1\u6709\u8fdb\u6b65\uff0c\u4ecd\u6709\u5f88\u5927\u7a7a\u95f4\u5728\u73b0\u6709\u6280\u672f\u7684\u57fa\u7840\u4e0a\u6784\u5efa\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u548c\u4f01\u4e1a\u4ea7\u54c1\u3002<\/section>\n<section><\/section>\n<section>\u4f8b\u5982\uff0cOpenAI \u6b63\u5fd9\u4e8e\u5c06\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u7f16\u7a0b\u529f\u80fd\u878d\u5165\u5176\u6a21\u578b\u4e2d\uff0c\u4ee5\u62b5\u5fa1\u6765\u81ea\u7ade\u4e89\u5bf9\u624b Anthropic \u7684\u91cd\u5927\u5a01\u80c1\u3002\u540e\u8005\u6b63\u5728\u5f00\u53d1\u4e00\u79cd\u8f6f\u4ef6\uff0c\u5176\u53ef\u4ee5\u63a5\u7ba1\u7528\u6237\u7535\u8111\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u50cf\u4eba\u7c7b\u4e00\u6837\u6267\u884c\u70b9\u51fb\u3001\u5149\u6807\u79fb\u52a8\u3001\u6587\u672c\u8f93\u5165\u6765\u4f7f\u7528\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u5e94\u7528\u7a0b\u5e8f\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u5b8c\u6210\u6d89\u53ca\u7f51\u7edc\u6d4f\u89c8\u5668\u6d3b\u52a8\u6216\u5e94\u7528\u7a0b\u5e8f\u7684\u767d\u9886\u5de5\u4f5c\u3002<\/section>\n<section><\/section>\n<section>\u8fd9\u4e9b\u4ea7\u54c1\u662f\u5411\u5904\u7406\u591a\u6b65\u9aa4\u4efb\u52a1\u7684 AI \u667a\u80fd\u4f53\u8fc8\u8fdb\u7684\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u4e0e ChatGPT \u6700\u521d\u53d1\u5e03\u65f6\u4e00\u6837\u5177\u6709\u9769\u547d\u6027\u3002<\/section>\n<section><\/section>\n<section>\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u624e\u514b\u4f2f\u683c\u3001\u5965\u7279\u66fc\u548c\u5176\u4ed6 AI \u5f00\u53d1\u5546\u7684\u9996\u5e2d\u6267\u884c\u5b98\u4e5f\u516c\u5f00\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u5c1a\u672a\u8fbe\u5230\u4f20\u7edf scaling laws \u7684\u6781\u9650\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0cOpenAI \u7b49\u516c\u53f8\u4ecd\u5728\u5f00\u53d1\u6602\u8d35\u7684\u3001\u4ef7\u503c\u6570\u5341\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u6570\u636e\u4e2d\u5fc3\uff0c\u4ee5\u5c3d\u53ef\u80fd\u591a\u5730\u63d0\u5347\u9884\u8bad\u7ec3\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u6027\u80fd\u3002<\/section>\n<section><\/section>\n<section>\u7136\u800c\uff0cOpenAI \u7814\u7a76\u8005 Noam Brown \u4e0a\u4e2a\u6708\u5728 TEDAI \u5927\u4f1a\u4e0a\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u66f4\u5148\u8fdb\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u53ef\u80fd\u5728\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4e0a\u4e0d\u53ef\u884c\u3002<\/section>\n<section><\/section>\n<section>\u300c\u6bd5\u7adf\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u771f\u7684\u8981\u82b1\u8d39\u6570\u5343\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u6216\u6570\u4e07\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u8bad\u7ec3\u6a21\u578b\u5417\uff1f\u300d Brown \u8bf4\u3002\u300c\u5728\u67d0\u4e2a\u65f6\u5019\uff0cscaling \u8303\u5f0f\u4f1a\u5d29\u6e83\u3002\u300d<\/section>\n<section><\/section>\n<section>OpenAI \u5c1a\u672a\u5b8c\u6210\u5bf9 Orion \u7684\u5b89\u5168\u6027\u7684\u6f2b\u957f\u6d4b\u8bd5\u8fc7\u7a0b\u3002\u5176\u5458\u5de5\u4eec\u8868\u793a\uff0cOpenAI \u660e\u5e74\u521d\u53d1\u5e03 Orion \u65f6\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u4e0d\u518d\u91c7\u7528\u5176\u65d7\u8230\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u4f20\u7edf\u300cGPT\u300d\u547d\u540d\u60ef\u4f8b\uff0c\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u51f8\u663e LLM \u6539\u8fdb\u65b9\u5f0f\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u3002\uff08OpenAI \u53d1\u8a00\u4eba\u6ca1\u6709\u5bf9\u6b64\u53d1\u8868\u8bc4\u8bba\u3002\uff09<\/section>\n<section><\/section>\n<section><strong>\u649e\u4e0a\u6570\u636e\u5357\u5899<\/strong><\/section>\n<section><\/section>\n<section>OpenAI \u5458\u5de5\u548c\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u8868\u793a\uff0cGPT \u901f\u5ea6\u653e\u7f13\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u4e4b\u4e00\u662f\u9ad8\u8d28\u91cf\u6587\u672c\u548c\u5176\u4ed6\u6570\u636e\u7684\u4f9b\u5e94\u91cf\u6b63\u5728\u51cf\u5c11\uff0c\u800c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6570\u636e\u662f LLM \u9884\u8bad\u7ec3\u6240\u5fc5\u9700\u7684\u3002<\/section>\n<section><\/section>\n<section>\u4ed6\u4eec\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u5728\u8fc7\u53bb\u51e0\u5e74\u4e2d\uff0cLLM \u4f7f\u7528\u6765\u81ea\u7f51\u7ad9\u3001\u4e66\u7c4d\u548c\u5176\u4ed6\u6765\u6e90\u7684\u516c\u5f00\u6587\u672c\u548c\u5176\u4ed6\u6570\u636e\u8fdb\u884c\u9884\u8bad\u7ec3\uff0c\u4f46\u6a21\u578b\u5f00\u53d1\u8005\u57fa\u672c\u4e0a\u5df2\u7ecf\u4ece\u8fd9\u7c7b\u6570\u636e\u4e2d\u69a8\u5e72\u4e86\u5c3d\u53ef\u80fd\u591a\u7684\u8d44\u6e90\u3002<\/section>\n<section><a href=\"https:\/\/17aitech.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/frc-a80b88262f3ce4ca1f0d3f7deb99ee29.png\" data-fancybox=\"images\" data-fancybox=\"gallery\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/17aitech.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/frc-a80b88262f3ce4ca1f0d3f7deb99ee29.png\"><\/a><\/section>\n<section>\u4f5c\u4e3a\u56de\u5e94\uff0cOpenAI \u6210\u7acb\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u57fa\u7840\u56e2\u961f\uff0c\u7531\u4e4b\u524d\u8d1f\u8d23\u9884\u8bad\u7ec3\u7684 Nick Ryder \u9886\u5bfc\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u8be5\u56e2\u961f\u5c06\u7814\u7a76\u5e94\u5bf9\u8bad\u7ec3\u6570\u636e\u7684\u532e\u4e4f\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u5927\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u6269\u5c55\u5b9a\u5f8b\u5c06\u6301\u7eed\u5230\u4ec0\u4e48\u65f6\u5019\u3002<\/section>\n<section><\/section>\n<section>\u636e OpenAI \u7684\u4e00\u540d\u5458\u5de5\u79f0\uff0cOrion \u90e8\u5206\u63a5\u53d7\u4e86 AI \u751f\u6210\u7684\u6570\u636e\u7684\u8bad\u7ec3\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6570\u636e\u7531\u5176\u4ed6 OpenAI \u6a21\u578b\u751f\u6210\uff0c\u5305\u62ec GPT-4 \u548c\u6700\u8fd1\u53d1\u5e03\u7684\u63a8\u7406\u6a21\u578b\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u8fd9\u4f4d\u5458\u5de5\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u5408\u6210\u6570\u636e\u5bfc\u81f4\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u65b0\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u5373 Orion \u6700\u7ec8\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u5728\u67d0\u4e9b\u65b9\u9762\u4e0e\u90a3\u4e9b\u65e7\u6a21\u578b\u76f8\u4f3c\u3002<\/section>\n<section><\/section>\n<section>\u98ce\u9669\u6295\u8d44\u4eba Ben Horowitz \u8868\u793a\uff1a\u300c\u6211\u4eec\u6b63\u5728\u4ee5\u540c\u6837\u7684\u901f\u5ea6\u589e\u52a0\u300e\u7528\u4e8e\u8bad\u7ec3 AI \u7684 GPU \u6570\u91cf\u300f\uff0c\u4f46\u6211\u4eec\u5e76\u6ca1\u6709\u4ece\u4e2d\u83b7\u5f97\u4efb\u4f55\u667a\u80fd\u6539\u8fdb\u3002\u300d<\/section>\n<section><\/section>\n<section>OpenAI \u7814\u7a76\u4eba\u5458\u6b63\u5728\u5229\u7528\u5176\u4ed6\u5de5\u5177\u5728\u8bad\u7ec3\u540e\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e2d\u6539\u8fdb LLM\uff0c\u901a\u8fc7\u6539\u8fdb\u5b83\u4eec\u5904\u7406\u7279\u5b9a\u4efb\u52a1\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u3002\u7814\u7a76\u4eba\u5458\u901a\u8fc7\u8ba9\u6a21\u578b\u4ece\u5927\u91cf\u5df2\u88ab\u6b63\u786e\u89e3\u51b3\u7684\u95ee\u9898\uff08\u5982\u6570\u5b66\u6216\u4ee3\u7801\u95ee\u9898\uff09\u4e2d\u5b66\u4e60\u6765\u5b9e\u73b0\u8fd9\u4e00\u76ee\u6807\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u8fc7\u7a0b\u79f0\u4e3a\u5f3a\u5316\u5b66\u4e60\u3002<\/section>\n<section><\/section>\n<section>\u4ed6\u4eec\u8fd8\u8981\u6c42\u4eba\u7c7b\u8bc4\u4f30\u4eba\u5458\u5728\u7279\u5b9a\u7684\u4ee3\u7801\u6216\u590d\u6742\u95ee\u9898\u4efb\u52a1\u4e0a\u6d4b\u8bd5\u9884\u8bad\u7ec3\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u5e76\u5bf9\u7b54\u6848\u8fdb\u884c\u8bc4\u5206\uff0c\u8fd9\u6709\u52a9\u4e8e\u7814\u7a76\u4eba\u5458\u8c03\u6574\u6a21\u578b\u4ee5\u6539\u8fdb\u5176\u5bf9\u67d0\u4e9b\u7c7b\u578b\u8bf7\u6c42\uff08\u4f8b\u5982\u5199\u4f5c\u6216\u4ee3\u7801\uff09\u7684\u56de\u7b54\u6c34\u5e73\u3002\u8fd9\u4e2a\u8fc7\u7a0b\u79f0\u4e3a\u5e26\u6709\u4eba\u7c7b\u53cd\u9988\u7684\u5f3a\u5316\u5b66\u4e60\uff08RLHF\uff09\uff0c\u4e5f\u4e3a\u8f83\u65e7\u7684\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u6a21\u578b\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u5e2e\u52a9\u3002<\/section>\n<section><\/section>\n<section>\u4e3a\u4e86\u5904\u7406\u8fd9\u4e9b\u8bc4\u4f30\uff0cOpenAI \u548c\u5176\u4ed6\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u5f00\u53d1\u4eba\u5458\u901a\u5e38\u4f9d\u9760 Scale AI \u548c Turing \u7b49\u521d\u521b\u516c\u53f8\u6765\u7ba1\u7406\u6570\u5343\u540d\u627f\u5305\u5546\u3002<\/section>\n<section><\/section>\n<section>\u968f\u7740 OpenAI \u6280\u672f\u7684\u6f14\u8fdb\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u4eba\u5458\u7ee7\u7eed\u5f00\u53d1\u51fa\u4e86\u540d\u4e3a o1 \u7684\u63a8\u7406\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u8be5\u6a21\u578b\u9700\u8981\u66f4\u591a\u65f6\u95f4\u300c\u601d\u8003\u300dLLM \u8bad\u7ec3\u7684\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u624d\u80fd\u7ed9\u51fa\u7b54\u6848\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u6982\u5ff5\u79f0\u4e3a\u6d4b\u8bd5\u65f6\u95f4\u8ba1\u7b97\u3002<\/section>\n<section><\/section>\n<section>\u8fd9\u610f\u5473\u7740\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u5728\u6a21\u578b\u56de\u7b54\u7528\u6237\u95ee\u9898\u65f6\u4e3a\u5176\u63d0\u4f9b\u989d\u5916\u7684\u8ba1\u7b97\u8d44\u6e90\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u4e0d\u66f4\u6539\u5e95\u5c42\u6a21\u578b\uff0co1 \u7684\u54cd\u5e94\u8d28\u91cf\u4e5f\u53ef\u4ee5\u7ee7\u7eed\u63d0\u9ad8\u3002\u4e00\u4f4d\u4e86\u89e3\u8fd9\u4e00\u8fc7\u7a0b\u7684\u4eba\u58eb\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u5982\u679c OpenAI \u80fd\u591f\u4e0d\u65ad\u63d0\u9ad8\u5e95\u5c42\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u8d28\u91cf\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u901f\u5ea6\u8f83\u6162\uff0c\u4e5f\u80fd\u4ea7\u751f\u66f4\u597d\u7684\u63a8\u7406\u7ed3\u679c\u3002<\/section>\n<section><\/section>\n<section>\u300c\u8fd9\u4e3a\u5927\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u6269\u5c55\u5f00\u8f9f\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u5168\u65b0\u7684\u7ef4\u5ea6\uff0c\u300dBrown \u5728 TEDAI \u4f1a\u8bae\u4e0a\u8868\u793a\u3002\u7814\u7a76\u4eba\u5458\u53ef\u4ee5\u901a\u8fc7\u5c06\u300c\u6bcf\u4e2a\u67e5\u8be2\u82b1\u8d39\u4e00\u5206\u94b1\u63d0\u5230\u6bcf\u4e2a\u67e5\u8be2\u82b1\u8d39\u4e00\u6bdb\u94b1\u300d\u6765\u6539\u5584\u6a21\u578b\u54cd\u5e94\u3002<\/section>\n<section><\/section>\n<section>\u5965\u7279\u66fc\u4e5f\u5f3a\u8c03\u4e86 OpenAI \u63a8\u7406\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u6027\uff0c\u5b83\u53ef\u4ee5\u4e0e LLM \u76f8\u7ed3\u5408\u3002<\/section>\n<section><\/section>\n<section>\u300c\u6211\u5e0c\u671b\u63a8\u7406\u80fd\u89e3\u9501\u5f88\u591a\u6211\u4eec\u7b49\u5f85\u591a\u5e74\u7684\u4e8b\u60c5 \u2014\u2014 \u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u50cf\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u80fd\u591f\u4e3a\u79d1\u5b66\u7814\u7a76\u505a\u51fa\u8d21\u732e\uff0c\u5e2e\u52a9\u7f16\u5199\u66f4\u591a\u975e\u5e38\u56f0\u96be\u7684\u4ee3\u7801\uff0c\u300d\u5965\u7279\u66fc\u5728 10 \u6708\u7684\u4e00\u6b21\u5e94\u7528\u5f00\u53d1\u8005\u6d3b\u52a8\u4e2d\u8bf4\u9053\u3002<\/section>\n<section><a href=\"https:\/\/17aitech.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/frc-8dd5f6f736799ef2da85acfe3be9dad1.png\" data-fancybox=\"images\" data-fancybox=\"gallery\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/17aitech.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/frc-8dd5f6f736799ef2da85acfe3be9dad1.png\"><\/a><\/section>\n<section>\u5728\u6700\u8fd1\u63a5\u53d7 Y Combinator \u9996\u5e2d\u6267\u884c\u5b98 Garry Tan \u91c7\u8bbf\u65f6\uff0c\u5965\u7279\u66fc\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u300c\u6211\u4eec\u57fa\u672c\u4e0a\u77e5\u9053\u8be5\u600e\u4e48\u505a\u300d\u624d\u80fd\u5b9e\u73b0\u901a\u7528\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\uff0c\u5373\u4e0e\u4eba\u7c7b\u667a\u529b\u76f8\u5f53\u7684\u6280\u672f \u2014\u2014 \u5176\u4e2d\u7684\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\u6d89\u53ca\u300c\u4ee5\u521b\u9020\u6027\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u4f7f\u7528\u73b0\u6709\u6a21\u578b\u300d\u3002<\/section>\n<section><\/section>\n<section>\u6570\u5b66\u5bb6\u548c\u5176\u4ed6\u79d1\u5b66\u5bb6\u8868\u793a\uff0co1 \u5bf9\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\u5f88\u6709\u5e2e\u52a9\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u5b83\u53ef\u4ee5\u5145\u5f53\u53ef\u4ee5\u63d0\u4f9b\u53cd\u9988\u6216\u60f3\u6cd5\u7684\u4f19\u4f34\u3002\u4f46\u4e24\u4f4d\u4e86\u89e3\u60c5\u51b5\u7684\u5458\u5de5\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u8be5\u6a21\u578b\u76ee\u524d\u7684\u4ef7\u683c\u6bd4\u975e\u63a8\u7406\u6a21\u578b\u9ad8\u51fa\u516d\u500d\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u5b83\u8fd8\u6ca1\u6709\u5e7f\u6cdb\u7684\u5ba2\u6237\u7fa4\u3002<\/section>\n<section><\/section>\n<section><strong>\u300c\u7a81\u7834\u6e10\u8fd1\u7ebf\u300d<\/strong><\/section>\n<section><\/section>\n<section>\u4e00\u4e9b\u5411\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u5f00\u53d1\u8005\u6295\u5165\u4e86\u6570\u5343\u4e07\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u6000\u7591\uff0c\u5927\u8bed\u8a00\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u8fdb\u6b65\u901f\u5ea6\u662f\u5426\u5f00\u59cb\u8d8b\u4e8e\u5e73\u7a33\u3002<\/section>\n<section><\/section>\n<section>Ben Horowitz \u7684\u98ce\u9669\u6295\u8d44\u516c\u53f8\u5df2\u7ecf\u6295\u8d44\u4e86 OpenAI\u3001Mistral \u548c Safe Superintelligence \u7b49\u516c\u53f8\uff0c\u4ed6\u5728 YouTube \u9891\u9053\u91cc\u8868\u793a\uff1a\u300c\u6211\u4eec\u6b63\u5728\u4ee5\u540c\u6837\u7684\u901f\u5ea6\u589e\u52a0\u300e\u7528\u4e8e\u8bad\u7ec3\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u7684 GPU\u300f\u7684\u6570\u91cf\uff0c\u4f46\u6211\u4eec\u6839\u672c\u6ca1\u6709\u4ece\u4e2d\u83b7\u5f97\u667a\u80fd\u6539\u8fdb\u3002\u300d<\/section>\n<section><\/section>\n<section>Horowitz \u7684\u540c\u4e8b Marc Andreessen \u5728\u540c\u4e00\u89c6\u9891\u4e2d\u5219\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u300c\u6709\u5f88\u591a\u806a\u660e\u4eba\u6b63\u5728\u52aa\u529b\u7a81\u7834\u6e10\u8fd1\u7ebf\uff0c\u60f3\u529e\u6cd5\u8fbe\u5230\u66f4\u9ad8\u6c34\u5e73\u7684\u63a8\u7406\u80fd\u529b\u3002\u300d<\/section>\n<section><\/section>\n<section>\u4f01\u4e1a\u8f6f\u4ef6\u516c\u53f8 Databricks \u7684\u8054\u5408\u521b\u59cb\u4eba\u517c\u4e3b\u5e2d\u8054\u5408\u5f00\u53d1\u8005 Ion Stoica \u8868\u793a\uff0c\u5927\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u8868\u73b0\u53ef\u80fd\u5728\u67d0\u4e9b\u65b9\u9762\u5df2\u7ecf\u505c\u6ede\uff0c\u4f46\u5728\u5176\u4ed6\u65b9\u9762\u4ecd\u5728\u8fdb\u6b65\u3002<\/section>\n<section><\/section>\n<section>Stoica \u8868\u793a\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u5927\u6a21\u578b\u5728\u4ee3\u7801\u548c\u89e3\u51b3\u590d\u6742\u3001\u591a\u6b65\u9aa4\u95ee\u9898\u7b49\u4efb\u52a1\u65b9\u9762\u4e0d\u65ad\u6539\u8fdb\uff0c\u4f46\u5176\u5728\u6267\u884c\u901a\u7528\u4efb\u52a1\uff08\u5982\u5206\u6790\u4e00\u6bb5\u6587\u672c\u7684\u60c5\u611f\u6216\u63cf\u8ff0\u533b\u7597\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u75c7\u72b6\uff09\u65b9\u9762\u4f3c\u4e4e\u8fdb\u5c55\u7f13\u6162\u3002<\/section>\n<section><\/section>\n<section>\u300c\u5bf9\u4e8e\u5e38\u8bc6\u6027\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u4f60\u53ef\u4ee5\u8bf4\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u6211\u4eec\u770b\u5230 LLM \u7684\u8868\u73b0\u505c\u6ede\u4e0d\u524d\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u9700\u8981 [\u66f4\u591a] \u4e8b\u5b9e\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u800c\u5408\u6210\u6570\u636e\u6ca1\u6709\u592a\u5927\u5e2e\u52a9\uff0c\u300d\u4ed6\u8bf4\u9053\u3002<\/section>\n<section><\/section>\n<section>\u4f60\u89c9\u5f97 AI \u53d1\u5c55\u7684 scaling laws \u901f\u5ea6\u653e\u7f13\u4e86\u5417\uff1f\u63a8\u7406\u65f6\u95f4\u8ba1\u7b97\u80fd\u5426\u6210\u4e3a\u65b0\u7684\u6027\u80fd\u63d0\u5347\u6765\u6e90\uff1f\u8bf7\u4e0e\u6211\u4eec\u5206\u4eab\u4f60\u7684\u89c2\u70b9\u3002<\/section>\n<section><\/section>\n<section><em><sup>\u53c2\u8003\u94fe\u63a5\uff1a<\/sup><\/em><\/section>\n<section><sup><em>https:\/\/www.theinformation.com\/articles\/openai-shifts-strategy-as-rate-of-gpt-ai-improvements-slows<\/em><\/sup><\/section>\n<section><sup><em>https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=xXCBz_8hM9w<\/em><\/sup><\/section>\n<section><sup><em>https:\/\/arxiv.org\/abs\/2211.04325<\/em><\/sup><\/section>\n<section><em><sup>https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=hookUj3vkE4<\/sup><\/em><\/section>\n<p>\u6587\u7ae0\u6765\u6e90\u4e8e\u4e92\u8054\u7f51:<a href=\"https:\/\/www.jiqizhixin.com\/articles\/2024-11-11-2\" target=\"_blank\">OpenAI\u5927\u6539\u4e0b\u4ee3\u5927\u6a21\u578b\u65b9\u5411\uff0cscaling law\u649e\u5899\uff1fAI\u793e\u533a\u70b8\u9505\u4e86<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u6587\u7ae0\u6765\u6e90\u4e8e\u4e92\u8054\u7f51:OpenAI\u5927\u6539\u4e0b\u4ee3\u5927 [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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