{"id":37009,"date":"2025-01-22T11:00:12","date_gmt":"2025-01-22T03:00:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/17aitech.com\/?p=37009"},"modified":"2025-01-22T11:00:12","modified_gmt":"2025-01-22T03:00:12","slug":"%e5%85%a8%e7%90%83%e9%a1%b6%e5%b0%96%e5%a4%a9%e6%b0%94%e9%a2%84%e6%8a%a5%e7%b3%bb%e7%bb%9f%e8%a2%abai%e5%87%bb%e8%b4%a5%ef%bc%8cdeepmind%e6%96%b0%e6%a8%a1%e5%9e%8b%e7%99%bbnature%ef%bc%8c8%e5%88%86","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/17aitech.com\/?p=37009","title":{"rendered":"\u5168\u7403\u9876\u5c16\u5929\u6c14\u9884\u62a5\u7cfb\u7edf\u88abAI\u51fb\u8d25\uff0cDeepMind\u65b0\u6a21\u578b\u767bNature\uff0c8\u5206\u949f\u641e\u5b9a\u672a\u676515\u5929\u9884\u6d4b"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u6587\u7ae0\u6765\u6e90\u4e8e\u4e92\u8054\u7f51:\u5168\u7403\u9876\u5c16\u5929\u6c14\u9884\u62a5\u7cfb\u7edf\u88abAI\u51fb\u8d25\uff0cDeepMind\u65b0\u6a21\u578b\u767bNature\uff0c8\u5206\u949f\u641e\u5b9a\u672a\u676515\u5929\u9884\u6d4b<\/a><\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

\u7f16\u8f91 \uff5c \u841d\u535c\u76ae<\/p>\n

\u5929\u6c14\u9884\u62a5\u4ece\u6839\u672c\u4e0a\u6765\u8bf4\u5177\u6709\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u9884\u6d4b\u53ef\u80fd\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u5929\u6c14\u60c5\u666f\u8303\u56f4\u5bf9\u4e8e\u91cd\u8981\u51b3\u7b56\u81f3\u5173\u91cd\u8981\uff0c\u4ece\u8b66\u544a\u516c\u4f17\u6ce8\u610f\u5371\u9669\u5929\u6c14\u5230\u89c4\u5212<\/mark>\u53ef\u518d\u751f\u80fd\u6e90\u7684\u4f7f\u7528\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4f20\u7edf\u4e0a\uff0c\u5929\u6c14\u9884\u62a5\u57fa\u4e8e\u6570\u503c\u5929\u6c14\u9884\u62a5 (NWP)\uff0c\u5b83\u4f9d\u8d56\u4e8e\u57fa\u4e8e\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u7684\u5927\u6c14\u6a21\u62df\u3002\u57fa\u4e8e\u673a\u5668\u5b66\u4e60<\/mark> (ML) \u7684\u5929\u6c14\u9884\u62a5 (MLWP) \u7684\u6700\u65b0\u8fdb\u5c55\u4ea7\u751f\u4e86\u57fa\u4e8e ML \u7684\u5929\u6c14\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u5176\u9884\u6d4b\u8bef\u5dee\u6bd4\u5355\u4e00 NWP \u6a21\u62df\u8981\u5c0f\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u8fdb\u5c55\u4e3b\u8981\u96c6\u4e2d\u5728\u5355\u4e00\u7684\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u9884\u6d4b\u4e0a\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u9884\u6d4b\u65e0\u6cd5\u53cd\u6620\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u548c\u4f30\u8ba1\u98ce\u9669\u3002\u603b\u4f53\u800c\u8a00\uff0cMLWP \u7684\u51c6\u786e\u6027\u548c\u53ef\u9760\u6027\u4ecd\u7136\u4f4e\u4e8e\u6700\u5148\u8fdb\u7684 NWP \u96c6\u5408\u9884\u62a5\u3002<\/p>\n

Google DeepMind<\/mark> \u7684\u7814\u7a76\u4eba\u5458\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86 GenCast\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u6982\u7387\u5929\u6c14\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u5176\u6280\u5de7\u548c\u901f\u5ea6\u6bd4\u4e16\u754c\u4e0a\u9876\u7ea7\u7684\u4e2d\u671f\u5929\u6c14\u9884\u62a5\u3001ENS\uff08\u6b27\u6d32\u4e2d\u671f\u5929\u6c14\u9884\u62a5\u4e2d\u5fc3\u7684\u96c6\u5408\u9884\u62a5\uff09\u66f4\u9ad8\u3002<\/p>\n

GenCast \u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u673a\u5668\u5b66\u4e60<\/mark>\u5929\u6c14\u9884\u62a5\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u57fa\u4e8e\u6570\u5341\u5e74\u7684\u518d\u5206\u6790\u6570\u636e\u8fdb\u884c\u8bad\u7ec3\u3002GenCast \u53ef\u5728 8 \u5206\u949f\u5185\u751f\u6210\u4e00\u7ec4\u968f\u673a\u7684 15 \u5929\u5168\u7403\u9884\u62a5\uff0c\u6b65\u957f\u4e3a 12 \u5c0f\u65f6\uff0c\u7ecf\u7eac\u5ea6\u5206\u8fa8\u7387\u4e3a 0.25\u00b0\uff0c\u6db5\u76d6 80 \u591a\u4e2a\u5730\u8868\u548c\u5927\u6c14\u53d8\u91cf\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5728\u56e2\u961f\u8bc4\u4f30\u7684 1,320 \u4e2a\u76ee\u6807\u4e2d\uff0c\u6709 97.2% \u7684\u76ee\u6807\u663e\u793a\u51fa\u6bd4 ENS \u66f4\u7a33\u5065\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u80fd\u66f4\u597d\u5730\u9884\u6d4b\u6781\u7aef\u5929\u6c14\u3001\u70ed\u5e26\u6c14\u65cb\u8f68\u8ff9\u548c\u98ce\u529b\u53d1\u7535\u3002<\/p>\n

\u8fd9\u9879\u5de5\u4f5c\u6709\u52a9\u4e8e\u5f00\u542f\u5b9e\u7528\u5929\u6c14\u9884\u62a5\u7684\u4e0b\u4e00\u7bc7\u7ae0\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u5173\u952e\u7684\u5929\u6c14\u76f8\u5173\u51b3\u7b56\u5c06\u66f4\u52a0\u51c6\u786e\u548c\u9ad8\u6548\u3002<\/p>\n

\u8be5\u7814\u7a76\u4ee5\u300cProbabilistic weather forecasting with machine learning<\/em>\u300d\u4e3a\u9898\uff0c\u4e8e 2024 \u5e74 12 \u6708 4 \u65e5\u53d1\u5e03\u5728\u300aNature<\/em>\u300b\u3002<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

\u5929\u6c14\u9884\u62a5\u5728\u65e5\u5e38\u751f\u6d3b\u4e2d\u53d1\u6325\u7740\u91cd\u8981\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u534f\u52a9\u4eba\u4eec\u5728\u751f\u4ea7\u751f\u6d3b\u4e2d\u505a\u51fa\u5173\u952e\u51b3\u7b56\u3002\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u5f53\u524d\u5929\u6c14\u90e8\u95e8\u53ea\u80fd\u90e8\u5206\u89c2\u6d4b\u6c14\u5019\uff0c\u4e14\u6c14\u8c61\u6a21\u578b\u5b58\u5728\u4e0d\u5b8c\u7f8e\u6027\uff0c\u9884\u62a5\u603b\u662f\u5e26\u6709\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4f20\u7edf\u7684\u6570\u503c\u5929\u6c14\u9884\u62a5\uff08NWP\uff09\u65b9\u6cd5\u901a\u8fc7\u6c42\u89e3\u5927\u6c14\u52a8\u529b\u5b66\u65b9\u7a0b\u6765\u9884\u6d4b\u5929\u6c14\uff0c\u800c\u96c6\u5408\u9884\u62a5\uff08ENS\uff09\u5219\u901a\u8fc7\u751f\u6210\u591a\u4e2a\u9884\u62a5\u60c5\u666f\u6765\u63cf\u8ff0\u672a\u6765\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u5929\u6c14\u60c5\u51b5\u3002\u5c3d\u7ba1\u96c6\u5408\u9884\u62a5\u80fd\u591f\u63d0\u4f9b\u66f4\u4e3a\u7cbe\u51c6\u7684\u6982\u7387\u5206\u5e03<\/mark>\uff0c\u4f46\u5b83\u4ecd\u5b58\u5728\u8bef\u5dee\u5927\u3001\u8ba1\u7b97\u6162\u4e14\u6267\u884c\u5de5\u7a0b\u590d\u6742\u7b49\u95ee\u9898\u3002<\/p>\n

\u6700\u8fd1\uff0c\u57fa\u4e8e\u673a\u5668\u5b66\u4e60<\/mark>\u7684\u5929\u6c14\u9884\u62a5\uff08MLWP\uff09\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u5728\u975e\u6982\u7387\u6027\u9884\u62a5\u65b9\u9762\u5df2\u7ecf\u8868\u73b0\u51fa\u6bd4 NWP \u66f4\u4e3a\u7cbe\u51c6\u548c\u9ad8\u6548\u7684\u6027\u80fd\u3002\u4f46\u662f\u5df2\u6709\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u901a\u5e38\u4fa7\u91cd\u4e8e\u9884\u6d4b\u6982\u7387\u8f68\u8ff9\u7684\u5747\u503c\u800c\u975e\u4e0d\u786e\u5b9a\u6027\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u5728\u957f\u65f6\u95f4\u9884\u62a5\u4e2d\u6548\u679c\u8f83\u5dee\u3002\u67d0\u4e9b\u6df7\u5408 NWP-MLWP \u65b9\u6cd5\u5982 NeuralGCM \u5728\u6027\u80fd\u4e0a\u4e0e\u4f20\u7edf\u96c6\u5408\u9884\u62a5\u76f8\u5f53\uff0c\u4f46\u7a7a\u95f4\u5206\u8fa8\u7387\u8f83\u4f4e\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5728\u6700\u65b0\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\uff0cGoogle DeepMind<\/mark> \u7684\u7814\u7a76\u4eba\u5458\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86 GenCast\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u5168\u65b0\u7684 MLWP \u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u5176\u6027\u80fd\u660e\u663e\u4f18\u4e8e\u9876\u7ea7\u96c6\u6210 NWP \u6a21\u578b ENS\u3002\u5b83\u53ef\u4ee5\u751f\u6210\u903c\u771f\u7684\u5355\u4e2a\u5929\u6c14\u8f68\u8ff9\u96c6\u6210\uff0c\u63d0\u4f9b\u6bd4 ENS \u66f4\u597d\u7684\u8fb9\u9645\u9884\u62a5\u5206\u5e03\u548c\u8054\u5408\u9884\u62a5\u5206\u5e03\u3002<\/p>\n

GenCast\u6a21\u578b<\/strong><\/p>\n

GenCast \u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u6982\u7387\u5929\u6c14\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u53ef\u751f\u6210\u5206\u8fa8\u7387\u4e3a 0.25\u00b0 \u7684\u5168\u7403 15 \u5929\u96c6\u5408\u9884\u62a5\uff0c\u5176\u51c6\u786e\u5ea6\u9ad8\u4e8e\u9876\u7ea7\u4e1a\u52a1\u96c6\u5408\u7cfb\u7edf\u00a0ECMWF \u7684 ENS\u3002\u5728 Cloud TPUv5 \u8bbe\u5907\u4e0a\u751f\u6210\u5355\u4e2a 15 \u5929 GenCast \u9884\u62a5\u5927\u7ea6\u9700\u8981 8 \u5206\u949f\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u53ef\u4ee5\u5e76\u884c\u751f\u6210\u4e00\u7ec4\u9884\u62a5\u3002<\/p>\n

GenCast \u6839\u636e\u5f53\u524d\u548c\u4e4b\u524d\u7684\u5929\u6c14\u72b6\u6001\u5bf9\u672a\u6765\u5929\u6c14\u72b6\u6001\u00a0Xt+1\u00a0<\/sup>\u7684\u6761\u4ef6\u6982\u7387\u5206\u5e03<\/mark> P(Xt+1<\/sup>|Xt<\/sup>, Xt\u22121<\/sup>) \u8fdb\u884c\u5efa\u6a21\u3002\u957f\u5ea6\u4e3a T \u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u8f68\u8ff9 X1:T<\/sup> \u4ee5\u521d\u59cb\u72b6\u6001\u548c\u4e4b\u524d\u7684\u72b6\u6001 (X0<\/sup>, X\u22121<\/sup>) \u4e3a\u6761\u4ef6\uff0c\u5e76\u5206\u89e3\u8fde\u7eed\u72b6\u6001<\/a>\u7684\u8054\u5408\u5206\u5e03\uff0c\u6bcf\u4e2a\u72b6\u6001\u90fd\u4ee5\u81ea\u56de\u5f52\u65b9\u5f0f\u91c7\u6837\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5168\u7403\u5929\u6c14\u72b6\u51b5 X \u7684\u8868\u793a\u7531\u7b49\u89d2 0.25\u00b0 \u7eac\u5ea6-\u7ecf\u5ea6\u7f51\u683c\u4e0a\u7684 13 \u4e2a\u5782\u76f4\u6c14\u538b\u6c34\u5e73\u4e0a\u7684\u516d\u4e2a\u5730\u8868\u53d8\u91cf\u548c\u516d\u4e2a\u5927\u6c14\u53d8\u91cf\u7ec4\u6210\u3002\u9884\u62a5\u671f\u4e3a 15 \u5929\uff0c\u8fde\u7eed\u6b65\u9aa4 t \u548c t + 1 \u4e4b\u95f4\u95f4\u9694 12 \u5c0f\u65f6\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64 T = 30\u3002<\/p>\n

\u7814\u7a76\u4eba\u5458\u4f7f\u7528 X \u7684\u5206\u6790\u6765\u8bad\u7ec3 GenCast\uff0c\u5b83\u4ee3\u8868\u4e86\u4ece\u89c2\u6d4b\u4e2d\u63a8\u65ad\u51fa\u7684\u5929\u6c14\u72b6\u51b5\u7684\u6700\u4f73\u4f30\u8ba1\u503c\u3002<\/p>\n

GenCast \u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u6761\u4ef6\u6269\u6563\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u5b83\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u751f\u6210\u5f0f ML \u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u5bf9\u590d\u6742\u6570\u636e\u7684\u6982\u7387\u5206\u5e03<\/mark>\u8fdb\u884c\u5efa\u6a21\u5e76\u751f\u6210\u65b0\u6837\u672c\u3002\u6269\u6563\u6a21\u578b\u662f\u751f\u6210\u5f0f AI \u9886\u57df\u4e2d\u8bb8\u591a\u6700\u65b0\u81ea\u7136\u56fe\u50cf\u3001\u58f0\u97f3\u548c\u89c6\u9891\u5efa\u6a21\u8fdb\u5c55\u7684\u57fa\u7840\u3002\u6269\u6563\u6a21\u578b\u901a\u8fc7\u8fed\u4ee3\u7ec6\u5316\u8fc7\u7a0b\u8fdb\u884c\u5de5\u4f5c\u3002\u672a\u6765\u7684\u5927\u6c14\u72b6\u6001 Xt+1<\/sup> \u662f\u901a\u8fc7\u8fed\u4ee3\u7ec6\u5316\u5019\u9009\u72b6\u6001\uff08\u521d\u59cb\u5316\u4e3a\u7eaf\u566a\u58f0<\/a>\uff09\u800c\u4ea7\u751f\u7684\uff0c\u8be5\u5019\u9009\u72b6\u6001\u4ee5\u4e4b\u524d\u7684\u4e24\u4e2a\u5927\u6c14\u72b6\u6001\uff08Xt<\/sup>\u3001Xt-1<\/sup>\uff09\u4e3a\u6761\u4ef6\u3002<\/p>\n

\u56fe 1 \u4e2d\u7684\u84dd\u8272\u6846\u663e\u793a\u4e86\u5982\u4f55\u4ece\u521d\u59cb\u6761\u4ef6\u751f\u6210\u7b2c\u4e00\u4e2a\u9884\u6d4b\u6b65\u9aa4\u4ee5\u53ca\u5982\u4f55\u81ea\u56de\u5f52\u751f\u6210\u5b8c\u6574\u8f68\u8ff9 X1:T<\/sup>\u3002\u7531\u4e8e\u9884\u6d4b\u4e2d\u7684\u6bcf\u4e2a\u65f6\u95f4\u6b65\u9aa4\u90fd\u7528\u566a\u58f0\u521d\u59cb\u5316\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u53ef\u4ee5\u4f7f\u7528\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u566a\u58f0\u6837\u672c\u91cd\u590d\u8be5\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4ee5\u751f\u6210\u8f68\u8ff9\u96c6\u5408\u3002<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

\u56fe 1\uff1aGenCast \u5982\u4f55\u4ea7\u751f\u9884\u6d4b\u7684\u793a\u610f\u56fe\u3002\uff08\u6765\u6e90\uff1a\u8bba\u6587\uff09<\/p>\n

\u5728\u8fed\u4ee3\u7ec6\u5316\u8fc7\u7a0b\u7684\u6bcf\u4e2a\u9636\u6bb5\uff0cGenCast \u90fd\u4f1a\u4f7f\u7528\u964d\u566a\u795e\u7ecf\u7f51\u7edc<\/mark>\uff0c\u8be5\u7f51\u7edc\u7ecf\u8fc7\u8bad\u7ec3\uff0c\u53ef\u4f7f\u7528\u8bba\u6587\u4e2d\u63cf\u8ff0\u7684\u635f\u5931\u51fd\u6570<\/mark>\u6d88\u9664\u4eba\u4e3a\u6dfb\u52a0\u5230\u5927\u6c14\u72b6\u6001\u4e2d\u7684\u566a\u58f0\u3002\u964d\u566a\u5668\u7684\u67b6\u6784\u5305\u62ec\u7f16\u7801\u5668\u3001\u5904\u7406\u5668\u548c\u89e3\u7801\u5668\u3002<\/p>\n

GenCast \u662f\u57fa\u4e8e 1979 \u5e74\u81f3 2018 \u5e74 40 \u5e74\u7684\u6700\u4f73\u4f30\u8ba1\u5206\u6790\u8fdb\u884c\u8bad\u7ec3\u7684\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u5206\u6790\u53d6\u81ea\u516c\u5f00\u53ef\u7528\u7684 ERA5\uff08\u7b2c\u4e94\u4ee3 ECMWF \u518d\u5206\u6790\uff09\u518d\u5206\u6790\u6570\u636e\u96c6\u3002<\/p>\n

\u518d\u5206\u6790\u901a\u8fc7\u8ba1\u7b97\u5386\u53f2\u65e5\u671f\u548c\u65f6\u95f4\u7684\u5206\u6790\u6765\u91cd\u5efa\u8fc7\u53bb\u7684\u5929\u6c14\u3002\u5728\u8bc4\u4f30 GenCast \u65f6\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u4eba\u5458\u4f7f\u7528 ERA5 \u5206\u6790\u5bf9\u5176\u8fdb\u884c\u521d\u59cb\u5316\u3002<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

\u56fe 2\uff1a\u9884\u62a5\u548c\u70ed\u5e26\u6c14\u65cb\u8def\u5f84\u7684\u53ef\u89c6\u5316\u3002\uff08\u6765\u6e90\uff1a\u8bba\u6587\uff09<\/p>\n

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\u7ed3\u8bed<\/strong><\/p>\n

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\u8bba\u6587\u94fe\u63a5\uff1ahttps:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41586-024-08252-9<\/em><\/p>\n

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